5:08 p.m. ET, January 12, 2022
Early signs that Omicron is peaking in some places offer hope
From CNN's Deidre McPhillips
The Omicron surge has driven Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations to record highs in the United States. This week, however, officials have started to call out very early signs that the wave is peaking – or at least plateauing – in the Northeast. But rates are still higher in this region than any other and it will be weeks before any change can be declared a trend.
On Tuesday, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said that recent case trends are “a glimmer of hope.” She specifically noted an apparent plateau in average daily case rates in New York City.
The New York City health department’s data tracker indicates that while the test positivity rate is “stable,” case trends are “increasing,” as are hospitalizations and deaths. Also, data for the most recent 10 days is considered incomplete.
"We remain squarely within our Omicron wave in New York City, whether looking at cases, hospitalizations, or deaths due to COVID-19,” according to a statement from the city’s health department. “Although there are preliminary signs that the level of cases may be plateauing, we need to continue following the data closely in the coming days to discern the trend.”
In a briefing Tuesday, Philadelphia Health Commissioner Dr. Cheryl Bettigole said that judging from a collection of metrics, the city “may be at peak right now.” Data from the city shows that the test positivity rate dropped for the first time in months, from 45% positive in the last week of December to 36% in the first week of January.
But she noted that the trends remain in flux.
“The thing about watching things like this is you’re watching a graph, you’re doing your best to project, and there’s no certainty to any of this,” she said. “I think we’re going to see it wiggle over the next few days, and then it’s just a question of whether we can hold it together and manage not to expose ourselves.”
In New Jersey, average daily cases have dropped slightly in recent days, but weekly tallies are still up about 6% compared to a week ago, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
“We’ve had two days of a slight downturn, so we’re looking at a silver lining,” New Jersey Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said on Monday. “That’s why I keep telling everybody it’s a prediction. Omicron is a funny variant that shoots way up and then, for example in South Africa came down just as quickly. We can only hope that that occurs.”
New Jersey state epidemiologist Dr. Christina Tan said that the Northeast region may see cases peak before other parts of the US.
In addition to New Jersey, only four other states – Maryland, Ohio, Delaware and Georgia – as well as Washington, DC, have seen case rates hold relatively steady compared to last week, changing less than 10% in either direction, according to data from JHU. But only in DC has this plateau held for more than week.
Some more context: Overall, the US is reporting an average of more than 747,000 Covid-19 cases each day, about triple the peak from last winter, according to JHU data. Cases are up 34% compared to a week earlier. A record number of people are hospitalized with Covid-19 – more than 151,000, which has about doubled in two weeks, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services. And deaths are now starting to trend up, too, jumping 40% over the past week, according to JHU data.