4:24 p.m. ET, December 14, 2021
Vaccines prevented more than 1 million Covid-19 deaths in the US, study estimates
From CNN's Deidre McPhillips
A Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine is prepared for administration at a vaccination clinic on September 22 in Los Angeles.
(Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images)
Vaccines prevented more than 1 million Covid-19 deaths and more than 10 million hospitalizations in the United States, a
study published Tuesday by The Commonwealth Fund estimates.
The model also predicts that there would have been nearly 36 million additional infections through November 2021 in the absence of vaccines.
Most of the deaths and hospitalizations that vaccines helped to avoid would have occurred in the late summer and early fall as the Delta variant began to spread widely across the country and surge in southern states, according to the study. During that time, average daily deaths could have spiked as high as 21,000 per day. That’s about six times the January 2021 peak of about 3,400 deaths per day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
“Even the 2.6 million COVID-related hospitalizations that occurred during 2021 placed an enormous strain on hospitals, with many staff lost not only to the virus but also to exhaustion and burnout. Faced with such unprecedented demand, U.S. hospitals operating under crisis standards of care would likely have had no choice but to turn away tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of individuals,” the authors wrote.
Researchers from The Commonwealth Fund built their model using published data about vaccine effectiveness and the pace of vaccinations, as well as a timeline and characteristics of the original coronavirus strain and three variants: Alpha, Delta and Iota. They assumed that increased social activities – as well as reopening of business and schools – would have moved forward consistently even without the introduction of vaccines.
“Our findings highlight the ongoing tragedy of preventable death and hospitalization occurring among unvaccinated Americans,” the researchers wrote. “As immunity wanes and breakthrough infections continue to emerge, it is clear we must vaccinate (and give booster shots) to many more people — building on the tremendous, though mostly invisible, successes the U.S. vaccination program has accomplished thus far.”
Some more context: According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the risk of dying from Covid-19 is 14 times higher for unvaccinated people than it is for those who are fully vaccinated. And cumulative hospitalization rates for adults are also about eight times higher among unvaccinated people than they are among fully vaccinated people.
Now one year into vaccinations in the US, more than 202 million people – about 61% of the population – are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC. Overall throughout the pandemic, the US has reported more than 50 million Covid-19 cases and about 800,000 deaths, according to JHU.