9:01 a.m. ET, November 20, 2019
Lib Dems promise £50 billion "Remain Bonus"
The Liberal Democrats have made a bold claim on Wednesday, saying that staying in the European Union would save the UK £50 billion ($64.5 billion).
The party said it would invest this "Remain Bonus" in public services and programs aimed at tackling inequality.
How reasonable is this promise?
Most economists, including those at the highly respected Institute of Fiscal Studies, the Bank of England and the UK Treasury, agree that the UK economy
would grow faster in the event of no Brexit compared to a situation where the country leaves the EU with a deal. A no-deal Brexit -- in which Britain crashes out of the EU without an agreement on future relations -- would likely push the economy into a recession.
However, putting a precise number on the extra growth is tricky -- the economy is a complex beast shaped by a whole array of events, many of which are completely outside the government's control.
The Lib Dems are basing their claim on the assumption that the economy would be 2% larger by 2025.
FullFact, a UK independent factchecking charity, said the claim was "a reasonable estimate but highly uncertain." The charity said:
This is a fair assessment of the best available forecasts, comparing Remain to a Brexit deal scenario. But those forecasts themselves contain a high degree of uncertainty, so we shouldn’t treat £50 billion as definitive.