October 10, 2023 - Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise run to replace Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker

House Republicans will gather behind closed doors at 10 a.m. tomorrow and are expected to debate and vote on a change to conference rules to raise the threshold to win the speakership nomination.

This is expected to take place before they proceed with the speaker selection process. 

If adopted, the proposal would raise the threshold to win the nomination from a simple majority of the conference, which is 111 members, to a majority of the House — currently 217 with vacancies — before a House floor vote, per the amendment obtained by CNN. 

Here's how it would work: As detailed in the amendment, once a candidate gets a majority of the support from the conference, members vote by secret ballot for two rounds to try to secure the needed 217 votes. If that hasn’t happened, the third round is a manual roll call. If a candidate doesn’t get 217 after five rounds of voting, then new candidates (and candidates who have not dropped out) can emerge and be nominated by members. 

The idea is to make sure that the internal squabbling happens out of public view, so the candidate can emerge from the conference with enough votes to be elected speaker on the first floor ballot. If successful, this could avoid a protracted floor fight like the one that occurred when Rep. Kevin McCarthy won the gavel after 15 ballots in January. 

That means the candidate could only afford to lose four GOP votes before winning the conference nomination.

Rep. Matt Gaetz, who led the charge to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy after McCarthy brought a short-term government spending bill to the floor in September, indicated that he won’t make the same move against either candidate for speaker if one were to push for a stopgap bill.

The Florida Republican said he had not made a decision yet on whether he would back Jim Jordan or Steve Scalise, saying he would “pray on it.” 

“I don’t think that Kevin McCarthy ever wanted to do single-subject spending bills, and the best evidence I have for that is that we went on a six-week vacation without doing them. ... Here we’ve got a different shot clock, because we have tens of days left before the government runs out of money," Gaetz told CNN’s Manu Raju.

Later, he told more reporters, “I’m very confident that both of these men would represent an upgrade over Speaker McCarthy, so I’m not concerned that the things that really imperiled his speakership would be baggage carried by either a Speaker Jordan or a Speaker Scalise.” 

While he said he hasn’t decided whom he will vote for in tomorrow’s secret ballot for the GOP nomination, Gaetz said that "whichever of these great men get a majority of the conference, I’ll be really proud to vote for them on the floor."

Gaetz also indicated that he’d be open to negotiating on changing the rules so that more than one member is needed to try to oust the speaker.

“I think that the motion to vacate is negotiable, but it’s negotiable for things that are going to make representatives in Washington more responsive,” he said, pointing to reforms that Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna has advocated.

“What I want are the Ro Khanna reforms that stop members of Congress from trading stocks, that stop members of Congress from becoming lobbyists or registered foreign agents, and that limit the ability of PACs and special interests to buy off members of Congress,” he said.

A critical bloc of House GOP members from New York are still undecided on whom they will ultimately support for speaker, New York freshman Rep. Nick LaLota told CNN. 

“A lot of us New Yorkers have decided to band together and to discuss these things as a group. We come from very similar districts. Our constituents are very similar. Our view on this town and the world is very similar. So we're gonna get together and collaborate to figure out what is best for our constituents,” he told CNN’s Manu Raju. 

Asked whether he heard enough to support a candidate, LaLota demurred: “I’m not there yet. I think I need to hear a little more to understand their visions on avoiding a government shutdown and things along that nature.”

House Republicans wrapped up their candidate forum Tuesday night where lawmakers heard from their two current options to become speaker: GOP Reps. Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise. The two men got the opportunity to pitch themselves to their fellow party members ahead of a secret ballot vote scheduled for Wednesday in an attempt to convince the conference they can gather the 217 votes needed to win the gavel during a floor vote — a goal neither individual seemed to achieve.

Meanwhile, House Democrats finished up their own candidate forum in less than hour, nominating their leader, Hakeem Jeffries.

Here's the latest:

• Candidates outline plans to avoid government shutdown: The two GOP candidates during the forum outlined their plans to avoid a looming government shutdown with funding from a stopgap bill passed at the end of last month set to run out November 17. Jordan's plan called for a a long-term, stopgap spending bill that would cut spending levels by 1% to give lawmakers more time to pass individual spending bills. Scalise didn't go as far in suggesting such a measure, but told members he wants to pass all 12 appropriation bills and force negotiations with the Senate.
• McCarthy to support eventual nominee: Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who left the forum as it was just beginning, said he will support whichever candidate for speaker gets his conference’s support. He also urged his supporters not to nominate him, telling CNN’s Manu Raju: “There are two people running in there. I’m not one of them.”
• Democrats looking for bipartisan path forward: Former House Democratic Leader Steny Hoyer also argued that they need a new speaker so that the House can start moving on aid for Israel and criticized Republicans for creating a rule that allows one member to move to vacate the speakership. Jeffries, after being nominated at the Democratic forum, in a statement lamented the "MAGA Republican majority" causing "chaos and dysfunction" and said it is "time to get back to the business of the American people."
• Mace draws attention: Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina wore a t-shirt emblazoned with a large, red "scarlet A" because she was “demonized for my vote and for my voice.” This was in reference to her being one of the eight Republicans who voted out Kevin McCarthy as speaker last week.
• Republicans not confident on speaker vote: House Republican Rep. David Valadao said he thinks either candidate will "struggle" to get the necessary votes from their party to win a nomination and GOP Rep. Mike Garcia said it was “50/50” on whether they would be able to elect a speaker on Wednesday.
• Conflict in Israel looms large: The pressure for House Republicans to find consensus on a candidate to pass urgent support for an Israel at war with Hamas weighed heavy on the conversation following the two candidate forums. The only way to move more funding for Israel is to elect a new speaker, with Rep. Patrick McHenry, the temporary speaker, making clear to his colleagues that even a resolution vowing support for Israel isn’t within his limited powers. Both parties also commented on the possibility of tying aid for Israel with aid to Ukraine, a move Democrats have proposed and which Republicans have opposed.

The House GOP’s two candidates for speaker on Tuesday detailed their plans for avoiding a government shutdown — a key issue for members, and one that sank Kevin McCarthy’s speakership.

During a closed-door meeting, Rep. Jim Jordan told members he wants a long-term, stopgap spending bill that would cut spending levels by 1% to give lawmakers more time to pass individual spending bills, according to multiple lawmakers in the room. 

Rep. Don Bacon, a key moderate Republican, said he is leaning toward House Majority Leader Steve Scalise but was impressed by how “pragmatic” Jordan’s pitch was. 

“Because of his past, I think we expected to hear the Freedom Caucus message — it was not that. It was very pragmatic,” Bacon said.

Scalise, however, didn’t go as far in suggesting the need for a stopgap bill but told members he wants to pass all 12 appropriation bills and force negotiations with the Senate.

“I think we're voting not just for a speaker, but for the speaker’s plan to get us through the next 75 days. The appropriations cycle. And the biggest difference between Scalise and Jordan is Jordan has a plan to avoid a shutdown. And it wasn't clear to me that Scalise does,” said Rep. Thomas Massie, who is backing Jordan. 

Both Jordan and Scalise committed to supporting each other if they become the nominee, lawmakers said. And both committed to continuing the House GOP’s impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, according to lawmakers in the room.

But Republicans leaving the candidate forum expressed skepticism that they would be able to quickly elect a new speaker.

"in case you haven’t noticed, we’re a pretty a divided conference right now. So I think this might take a little time to sort out," said Rep. Kelly Armstrong.

Asked by a reporter what the chances are that there will be a new House speaker by tomorrow, Massie said, “I’d put it at 2%.” 

And Rep. Ken Buck, one of the members who voted to oust McCarthy, said he isn’t “thrilled” with either choice and predicted someone else may come forward tomorrow, but wouldn’t predict who. 

During Tuesday night's candidate forum, Rep. Kat Cammack pressed both Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan on what “promises” they made to members in their bid to become speaker, according to a source familiar.

Jordan said the only promise he made was to “fight for you all," according to the source.

Scalise, however, didn’t answer the question, the source said.

It’s a pertinent question given that some of Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s January side deals to become speaker became a factor in his detractors’ decision to oust him.

House Republican Rep. David Valadao will not say which candidate for speaker he will support, but warns that it will be difficult for House Majority Leader Steve Scalise or Rep. Jim Jordan to get the votes they need to win.

“I think both candidates are going to struggle to get to 218. But I don’t know exactly where their numbers are. It seems like they are both scrambling and they're both working hard. So I don't know if anyone is super confident right now,” he said.

The California Republican noted that Jordan did speak to the conference about his plan to deal with government funding, but that he missed much of it.

Valadao said that both candidates sounded “open” to changing their rules so that more than one member is needed to call for the speaker to be ousted in the future. 

He added that Scalise and Jordan both recognized they will have to compromise with the Senate on Ukraine aid.

“There was talk of Ukraine and it sounds like they all agree there is going to be some sort of compromise there,” he said

Valadao said he expects they will vote Wednesday on a new speaker, but noted that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy may still get some votes.

“He asked them not to nominate him, but I still think there are people who want to vote for him and people who would support him,” said Valadao.

Following a "great" candidate forum, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise did not say whether he has the votes to secure the nomination for speaker tomorrow.

“We’ve been building a great coalition amongst my colleagues from every swath of the conference. Obviously, we just had a great forum in the full conference. What people have really liked about my approach is I’ve been a unifier," the Louisiana Republican said. "I’ve been someone who has built coalitions throughout my entire career. We’ve delivered big wins. People want to see us get back on track. We need a Congress that’s working."

Scalise added that if he wins the speakership, he would look to pass a resolution supporting Israel on "day one."

Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina, one of the eight Republicans who voted out Kevin McCarthy as speaker last week, said she wore a “scarlet A” on her shirt to Tuesday evening’s conference meeting after she was “demonized for my vote and for my voice.” 

“I’m wearing the scarlet letter after ... being a woman last week and being demonized for my vote and for my voice,” Mace said leaving the forum. “I’m here to let the rest of the world know and the country know I’m on the side of the people, I’m not on the side of the establishment, and I’m going to do the right thing every single time, no matter the consequences.” 

Mace said she is supporting House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan for speaker, adding she remained hopeful that Republicans would quickly get behind a candidate for speaker and vote on Wednesday afternoon.

“We’ll have our conference vote tomorrow, and I hope that win, lose or draw that we all get behind one person so we can go to the floor in the afternoon and have that vote,” Mace said.