11:00 a.m. ET, September 22, 2019
Warren voters are far more persuadable than Biden's
Our latest Iowa poll has a lot of good news for Warren. She's rising; Biden is mostly static; and Sanders is fading.
Warren's support grows among voters who are extremely or very enthusiastic, and she has a significantly higher very favorable rating than Biden or Sanders.
All that may, however, hide a weakness. We asked likely caucusgoers whether their mind was made up or whether they could be persuaded to change their support another candidate. The minority, 20%, said their mind was made up. The majority, 63%, said they could be persuaded to change their allegiance.
Warren doesn't do anywhere near as well among those who said their mind is made up.
Among those who said their mind was made up, the horserace breakdown was Biden 26%, Sanders 19% and Warren 14%.
Among those who said they could be persuaded to vote for a different candidate, it was Warren 31%, Biden 22% and Sanders 12%.
These numbers shouldn't be too surprising. Even as Biden has dipped since entering the race, he's consistently been in the top tier. His voters seem to be more with him than others. Sanders, meanwhile, has seen his backing drop to mostly his core supporters.
Warren has a lot of new supporters aboard her campaign train, so it makes sense that they are more persuadable. The question is whether Warren can lock them down over the next few months.