5:53 p.m. ET, September 17, 2019
Coalition calculus: Which parties might join together to form a government?
While none of the exit polls carried out during Israel's general election Tuesday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party in the lead, that does not necessarily mean he won't be able to form the next government.
Either Likud or Benny Gantz's Blue and White Party will have to secure the support of other smaller parties to form a governing majority (of 61) in the 120-seat Parliament.
A possible bloc for Netanyahu includes the right-wing Yamina party and the two religious parties, Shas and UTJ. But none of the exit polls project that this grouping would gain a majority — projections are between 54 and 57 seats.
Gantz’s Blue and White Party could secure the support of the Democratic Union and Labor-Gesher parties, plus, perhaps, the Joint List of Arab parties. But exit polls suggest that this bloc would score between 54 and 58 seats — still not enough for a majority.
But these are just projections. Final results could look different and it may yet be that either Netanyahu or Gantz could end up with a chance to form a government, with the support of the smaller parties essential in any coalition.
The only arithmetic that provides a clear path to a working majority would see a national unity government of Likud and Blue and White together, possibly with the support of Yisrael Beiteinu as well. After April’s election, Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman refused to join Likud’s right-wing coalition. He has spent much of this campaign calling for a unity government, with no role for Israel’s religious parties. If Likud, Blue and White and Yisrael Beiteinu did join forces it could, on the basis of these projections, have a total of between 72 and 75 seats.