President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, closed the book on their diplomatic relationship Saturday, meeting for a final time amid uncertainty over what the next Donald Trump presidency might portend for their two countries’ ties.
As they opened the talks on the sidelines of the APEC summit of Pacific leaders in Lima, both men described the relationship between Washington and Beijing as “the most important” in the entire world, one that could quickly tilt into global conflict if not carefully managed. Behind closed doors, the leaders hashed out a range of contentious issues that will undoubtedly continue into the next administration. As the talks concluded, the men put down their notes for a moment of reflection on what has been a lengthy and layered relationship.
For his part, Xi said he was prepared to maintain stable ties once Biden exits the world stage. Left largely unspoken were the deep questions about what Trump intends to do when he takes office in 65 days.
“The United States has recently concluded its elections,” Xi told Biden through a translator. “China’s goal of a stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relationship remains unchanged.”
“Make the wise choice,” Xi said, somewhat ominously. “Keep exploring the right way for two major countries to get along well with each other.”
The comments amounted to as clear a sign as any that China is now looking past Biden toward his successor. After more than a decade of encounters, the moment was likely the last time Biden and Xi will meet before Trump is inaugurated in January.
Xi didn’t mention Trump by name, but his opening comments suggested a degree of concern about what the incoming administration might have in store.
“China is ready to work with the new US administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences, so as to strive for a steady transition of the China-US relationship for the benefit of the two peoples,” Xi said.
Biden used the meeting to raise a series of contentious issues with Xi one last time, including Taiwan, the economy, Ukraine and fentanyl production. The leaders also reached a new agreement that artificial intelligence never be allowed to replace human control of nuclear weapons.
Biden acknowledged the relationship had seen its “ups and downs” since he took office.
But it was also a moment for reflection on a relationship that began more than a decade ago, over a long meal in Chengdu.
That was an episode that left deep impressions on the president, at least judging by how often he recounts it. A search of Biden’s speeches over the past four years finds 61 instances of him describing a moment at the end of the evening when, asked by Xi to define America, he came up with a single word: possibilities.
He brought up the dinner again as he prepared to say farewell to Xi for a final time.
“I remember being on the Tibetan plateau with you, and I remember being in Beijing and all over the world, first as vice president and then as president,” Biden said. “We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank. We have never kidded one another. We’ve been level with one another. And I think that’s vital.”
In the end, looking backward may be more productive for Biden and Xi than trying to predict what’s next for their two nations.
Trump’s return to the White House has been the overwhelming backdrop to the summit of Pacific leaders in Lima this week, as delegates discuss and strategize for an uncertain future.
Trump’s embrace of tariffs, autocrats and isolationist viewpoints runs mostly counter to the foreign policy principles Biden spent the past four years espousing on the world stage.
Yet Trump’s unpredictability might be the most disconcerting for the leaders gathered in Lima. That includes Xi, who regularly encourages stability above all else in his public pronouncements.
Still scarred from a chaotic first administration and looking for clues of whether Trump will adopt a more level approach during his second go-around, world leaders have not been encouraged by the Cabinet selections emerging from Mar-a-Lago. Talk of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth and former Rep. Matt Gaetz has permeated even the back hallways of the Lima Convention Center, where the APEC summit is convening.
Preparing for Trump
In some ways, Trump is hardly a mystery to Xi and his Chinese advisers, who spent four years dealing with him before Biden entered office. But like most of Trump’s policy choices, how he chooses to approach the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship this time around is anyone’s guess.
With just two months until Trump is inaugurated, top Chinese Communist Party officials have been trying to glean from foreign policy experts whether his campaign rhetoric will translate into his real agenda, according to people involved in the conversations.
The questions Chinese officials are raising, these people say, include Trump’s proposed hikes to his sweeping tariff programs; his posture toward Taiwan; his relationship with the leaders of Japan and South Korea; and the military footprint he plans to pursue in the Indo-Pacific.
Beijing has also taken stock of the China hawks with whom Trump plans to staff his Cabinet — including Sen. Marco Rubio at the State Department and Rep. Mike Waltz as his national security adviser. And Chinese officials are openly speculating on whether alternate channels of communication to Trump — through Elon Musk, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, or Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner — might help them soften the hardline stance the personnel selections have promoted.
There are signs pointing toward a more aggressive stance, including his hawkish choices for top national security roles. He’s promised vast 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, a move that would inject new volatility into an already contentious relationship.
But there’s also the memory of his attempts at cultivating a relationship with Xi during his first administration, hoping to secure trade agreements and improve other areas of cooperation. Ultimately, Trump and Xi inked a trade deal in which China agreed, among other things, to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars in American goods, which it never ended up buying.
The trade disputes, along with Xi’s attempts at obscuring the origins of the coronavirus, eventually soured ties between the two men. How Trump proceeds could have wide implications for the region and world.
Those stakes aside, there was little Biden could say to Xi that would likely reassure him of smooth Washington-Beijing ties in the years ahead. Biden administration officials acknowledge they have little insight into what a notoriously unpredictable leader might be planning.
In the meeting Saturday, Biden didn’t attempt to predict what might happen to the US-China relationship once he exits office in January, nor did he act as a conduit for messages between Xi and the incoming administration. His national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, acknowledged afterward that the Trump transition team “is not in the business of providing us assurances about anything.”
“It’s our job to do all that we can to set the new administration up as effectively as possible, and then they will decide how they’ll take things forward,” Sullivan said.
Instead, Biden in the meeting sought to underscore with Xi the importance of maintaining honest and straightforward lines of communication.
“What has made the relationship between the two of them function effectively is that they’re able to be very straight with one another, even disagree, and that level of candor, directness — even bluntness, at times — has been critical in helping see us through some choppy waters at times,” Sullivan said.
An opportunity to look back on a consequential relationship
Unlike the leaders’ previous two meetings — on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Bali and at an estate outside San Francisco — the Lima talks weren’t expected to result in a major list of outcomes.
The men were expected to talk about the usual topics — including Taiwan, Ukraine, fentanyl production and human rights — along with some new irritations, namely China’s alleged efforts to hack Trump’s cellphone along with other devices associated with his campaign.
But it was mostly an opportunity to look back on what has been a lengthy and somewhat complicated relationship.
For Xi, the meeting with Biden represented a delicate endeavor. Meeting with the outgoing US president is a way to show respect for the office and signal stability in the relationship, but major negotiations will loom with Trump once he takes over in January.
“The upside is tiny and the downside is enormous if Trump thinks they’re stealing his thunder or (the two leaders) are making deals that would tie Trump’s hands,” said one source familiar with the dynamic.
The two men came to know each other when each was serving as vice president. When it became clear Xi — then something of a mystery to American officials — was poised to take over leadership in China, Biden was dispatched by the Obama administration to take his temperature.
Biden likes to brag that he’s traveled tens of thousands of miles with Xi, and that among his fellow world leaders he’s spent the most time with him. And while that may have been true at one point, Xi has clearly turned his attention to deepening his relationship with another leader: Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
The “no limits” partnership the two men declared earlier in Biden’s term has concerned US, European and Asian officials alike, who see a growing anti-West partnership between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as one of the biggest future security threats. Already, the US has assessed China is sending tools and technology to Russia to produce missiles, aircraft and tanks used in its war against Ukraine. And revelations that Pyongyang has sent troops to Russia for fighting in Ukraine have loomed over talks in Peru this week.
A key counterweight could be Biden’s legacy
How Trump confronts those threats is not something he’s discussed at great length, at least as a candidate.
Speaking Friday, Biden acknowledged the world faces “a moment of significant political change” as he hailed a strengthened three-way partnership between the United States, Japan and South Korea.
Biden’s efforts to bring Tokyo and Seoul into closer partnership after years of historical acrimony amount to a major facet of his legacy in East Asia and his attempt to create counterweight to China.
It’s also an area his aides believe could — and should — be continued by the incoming Trump administration, though they acknowledge they have little to go on when it comes to the president-elect’s intentions.
Biden conceded Friday the meeting between himself, South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol and Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, was likely to be his last such encounter before he steps aside in January.
But he said his efforts to bring the three nations closer — after years of historical acrimony and tensions — would endure.
“I think it’s built to last,” he said. “It’s my hope and expectation.”
This story has been updated with new reporting.