Editor’s Note: Read our new story for the latest updates on Hurricane Rafael.
Rafael continues to strengthen and is now a Category 2 hurricane closing in on Cuba after lashing the Cayman Islands in the western Caribbean with strong winds and heavy rain Tuesday night.
Rafael is the 11th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Forecasters are warning there’s more uncertainty than usual about where the storm could go once it’s in the Gulf of Mexico midweek. It’s possible Rafael could impact the Gulf Coast this weekend or miss it entirely and drive into northeastern Mexico, so residents in these areas will need to monitor updates closely.
Forecasts should become clearer over the next 48 hours.
Three things are clear now: The storm will be weakening on approach in the Gulf and is not expected to be as severe as hurricanes Helene and Milton; tropical storm conditions could begin in the lower and middle Florida Keys by Wednesday; and the Caribbean will face the worst of the storm.
Storm pounds the Caribbean
Hurricane and tropical storm alerts were in place for most of Cuba and the Cayman Islands as Rafael began to pass through the Caymans on Tuesday night. The hurricane center said people on the Caymans should expect dangerous storm surge and destructive waves.
View this interactive content on CNN.comThe storm will continue to “rapidly intensify” and is forecast to be a strong Category 2 hurricane as it nears landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Rafael’s potent winds will also create rough seas and significant storm surge, with expected inundation of up to 3 feet in the Cayman Islands and as much as 9 feet in western Cuba above normal tide levels.
Rafael could bring widespread rainfall of 3 to 6 inches from Jamaica to western Cuba, with double-digit totals possible for areas stuck under multiple rounds of torrential, tropical rain. This deluge raises the risk of flash flooding and mudslides, especially in Jamaica’s mountainous regions.
The US State Department advised Americans in Cuba who wanted to leave to “depart now, ahead of Tropical Storm Rafael’s arrival.” It also suggested US citizens scheduled to travel there reconsider their plans. Americans are barred from traveling to Cuba for pure tourism but are permitted to go for family visits and educational activities.
The State Department also authorized its non-emergency employees and family members to voluntarily leave the island ahead of the storm.
Range of potential paths complicate storm’s future
Rafael could become the sixth named storm to slam into the US this season, but whether this occurs and where will depend on how a variety of complex atmospheric steering factors come together.
Two different forecast models show two opposing potential tracks for the storm that are contributing to the overall uncertainty for the US.
“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the hurricane center noted Tuesday.
One model expects Rafael to move north after hitting Cuba, keeping the storm on a path toward more of the eastern Gulf Coast by the weekend. The other shows the storm making a harder westward turn in the Gulf, which could weaken the storm or result in landfall in northeastern Mexico.
Either way, there are still several days before the storm could approach the Gulf Coast.
Despite the uncertainty, it’s likely the same deep, tropical moisture the storm is feeding from will fuel torrential rainfall for Florida and the Southeast starting Wednesday. A level 1 of 4 risk of flooding rainfall is in place for much of the region Wednesday with parts of Georgia and South Carolina under a level 2 of 4 risk.
Bursts of rain could cause dangerous flash flooding, but some areas could be slow to flood given how dry a lot of the soils are after a record-breaking October.
Shifts in the storm’s trajectory will influence what other parts of the Gulf Coast record tropical rainfall later in the week and over the weekend.
CNN’s Jennifer Hansler and Steve Almasy contributed to this report.