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The bitcoin bulls and meme stock traders are fired up about the prospect of another Donald Trump White House. Or at least, the prospect of doing some momentum trading over the next 18 days.
Here’s the deal: Bitcoin, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, surged briefly to a three-month high above $68,000 on Wednesday — driven by a mix of signals, including the former president’s statement on X that “crypto is the future” as well as Vice President Kamala Harris’ nod Monday to regulatory support for digital assets.
At the same time, shares of Trump Media were bouncing back from Tuesday’s mysterious 10% drop and resuming their meme-stock-esque tendency to rise without any fundamental reason to do so. The stock finished Wednesday up more than 15%.
What do the two assets, a digital currency and a media stock, have in common?
Not much, usually. But in recent weeks, they’ve both seemingly moved on traders’ perceptions of Trump’s reelection odds.
To be clear: These traders don’t have a crystal ball — they’re just gambling, with varying degrees of sophistication, on highly volatile assets.
Crypto traders are amped because of the Republican nominee’s apparent 180 on the asset class he once dismissed as a scam. Even though Tuesday’s launch of the Trump-backed crypto platform World Liberty Financial revealed tepid interest and numerous technical outages, the former president has spent months courting the industry’s billionaires and generally telling enthusiasts what they want to hear.
That enthusiasm went into hyperdrive Wednesday as Trump expanded his lead over Harris on a crypto-focused predictions website called Polymarket, where you can bet on the election outcome. As far as those investors are concerned, Trump has a 59% chance to Harris’ 41%. (That’s wildly out of step with national polls, including CNN’s “Poll of Polls,” which currently show a virtual dead heat.)
“As we get closer to the election, the voting estimates may create swings in the market,” says Steph Guild, senior director of investment strategy at Robinhood. Bitcoin may benefit if Trump’s odds improve, she said, “given he is seen as more friendly to crypto in general.”
Outside of the election prediction game, though, there are plenty of macro tailwinds propelling bitcoin, a bellwether for the broader crypto industry, Adrian Fritz, global head of research for crypto firm 21Shares, tells me. Not least: Central banks around the world are cutting interest rates, making risky assets like crypto more palatable. Plus, it’s #Uptober, aka the month when digital assets historically have had a good ride.
“It’s no surprise that it became way more political on both sides,” Fritz says. “The good thing is, it draws attention to the entire space … We truly believe that, no matter who’s the winner, it’s a net positive for the industry.”
Trump Media, meanwhile, is also experiencing a pre-election surge. But it is in a class of its own when it comes to turnover and meme-stock-like fluctuations.
In the past week, the equivalent of all of the DJT shares available for trade have changed hands multiple times, with the people holding onto the stock for an average of just two days, writes Barron’s journalist Al Root. For comparison, Root notes, Apple shares take more than a year to completely turn over.
That kind of volatility makes crypto look stable by comparison, but it attracts a certain kind of iron-stomach trader hoping to buy on the upswing and sell before it peaks. (Sounds easy, but your investment adviser would tell you you’re better off going to a casino because at least there you might have a nice cocktail and enjoy playing cards while you burn your money.)
The momentum plays are “absolutely” happening, Fritz says. “It’s not only on the retail side, but also professional investors … the basis trade has one of the most popular strategies when it comes to bitcoin,” he said.
(In other words, hedge funds are leveraging up to do complex trades that exploit small price differences between bitcoin’s spot price and futures market prices, and that’s amplifying trading volume even more.)
Bottom line: Both bitcoin and Trump Media could become even more volatile over the next few weeks as more traders pile in. But if pundits or voters are looking to the market for signs of which way this presidential election thing will go, keep in mind: Traders gonna trade. While some true believers may be putting their money into seemingly pro-Trump assets, the vast majority are just working the casino floor, trying to cover their bets and capture a few wins.
