Washington and Seoul may strike a cost-sharing agreement for US forces based in South Korea before the end of the year — even though the current agreement does not expire until the end of 2025 — as both sides feel a sense of urgency to get a new deal solidified before the possibility of a second Trump administration, according to two US officials and two former US officials familiar with the discussions.
The negotiations over the Special Measures Agreement, known as the SMA, strained the US-South Korea alliance during the Trump administration. Former President Donald Trump demanded Seoul pay up to 400% more for the presence of the 28,500 US troops in the country during negotiations over the current agreement.
Advocates argue that a significant US troop presence in the Korean Peninsula is crucial to strengthening the alliance between the two countries. The troops are important to both countries as a means to deter any potential attack from North Korea as Kim Jong Un’s regime continues to build its nuclear arsenal and as a way of bolstering the US presence in the region to counter China’s aggression.
There is more urgency to get the deal done before the end of the year on the Korean side, given the tumult of the previous round of negotiations, officials said. US officials are engaging with South Korean officials on the topic, but some officials fear that getting an agreement done now could trigger criticism from Trump, and they do not want the alliance to be in the former president’s line of fire if he wins the election in November.
Under the current agreement, South Korea pays about $1 billion annually, representing an increase of about 13.9% over previous SMAs. Multiple rounds of talks to renew the agreement have taken place, with the seventh round concluding at the end of August.
A State Department official declined to discuss the specifics of the ongoing negotiations but said that the US seeks a “a fair and equitable outcome” that will “support the readiness of US forces in Korea and strengthen and sustain the US-ROK alliance.”
The South Korean Ministry of Foreign affairs did not respond to a request for comment.
Trump administration officials largely negotiated the terms of the last agreement, but it did not go effect until March of 2021, just months after President Joe Biden took office, which allowed Biden administration officials to make changes that got the agreement to its final state.
During the initial phase of the talks, CNN reported that Trump had asked South Korea to pay $4.7 billion a year, a demand that came out of thin air and sent State and Defense Department officials scrambling to justify the number.
Earlier this year, Trump said that he did not think the South Korea is paying enough based on the last agreement.
“They were able to renegotiate with the Biden Administration and bring that number way, way down to what it was before, which was almost nothing,” Trump said earlier this year during an interview with Time. “Why would we defend somebody? And we’re talking about a very wealthy country. But they’re a very wealthy country and why wouldn’t they want to pay?”
Fast-tracking an agreement is possible, current, and former US officials said. Sources would not detail the current costs being discussed or commit to it getting done before the end of the year, but added that South Korea’s commitment on the topic could drive the negotiations to a conclusion.
One complication is that a deal will have to be approved by South Korea’s national assembly — which is dominated by the opposition party to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol. The US Congress has no role finalizing a deal on the American side.
Some former US officials have warned South Korea not to move too quickly toward an agreement, because it could backfire if Trump ends up in the White House.
“I think they are pretty close to getting the agreement done and it is a good idea for the US and South Korea to renew the agreement early. But it should not be done as a hedge against the next president. This is the kind of stuff that feeds into concerns about the bureaucracy working against a president’s potential intent,” said David Maxwell, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, pointing out that the agreement could be easily torn apart if Trump wins the election and opposes the terms that are agreed to.