Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket has dramatically reshaped the 2024 electoral map since earlier this year, when the contest looked to be between an unpopular and elderly incumbent president and the former president (and now convicted felon) he defeated four years prior.
The moves we are making in this latest installment of our “Road to 270” electoral map are all in a positive direction for Harris and suggest she has more potential paths to 270 electoral votes than President Joe Biden had when he was the party’s standard-bearer. This current outlook reverts the state of play to where it was in the closing days of the 2020 campaign, with seven battleground states (and one congressional district in Nebraska) as the central turf upon which the candidates and their campaigns will dedicate most of their time and money to win the White House. In the four weeks since Biden ended his presidential bid, those seven states have seen a combined $240 million in advertising spending, according to AdImpact, with an almost even split between Democrats and Republicans.
SEE CNN’S ROAD TO 270 INTERACTIVE MAP
Our previous electoral outlook had former President Donald Trump with a clear advantage in the quest for 270 electoral votes. That advantage has evaporated with Harris’ entrance into the race and her rapid success at unifying the Democratic Party and restoring political strength with some key constituencies (voters of color, young voters, female voters) which have been part of recent winning coalitions for Democratic candidates. Despite the momentum shift, it is important to note that this race has snapped back to a margin-of-error contest with no current clear leader. Both Trump and Harris have multiple viable paths to 270 electoral votes.
In this new electoral outlook, we have moved four states from leaning Republican to toss-up battleground status. Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina have a combined total of 53 electoral votes that we have moved from leaning in Trump’s direction to toss-up.
Trump now has 24 states (and one congressional district in Maine) either solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction that total 219 electoral votes, 51 votes short of the 270 required to win.
For her part, Harris has 19 states plus the District of Columbia either solidly in her favor or leaning in her direction, which brings her total electoral vote count to 225, 45 votes short of the 270 required to win.
We currently rate seven states (and one Nebraska congressional district) totaling 94 electoral votes as true toss-ups as we head into the Democratic National Convention and the final weeks of summer.
We should be very clear about what this electoral outlook is and, more importantly, what it is not. It is a current snapshot of the electoral college landscape in what will likely prove to be another very close and extraordinarily consequential presidential election. It is not a prediction of how things will turn out in November.
We base this current outlook on public and private polling; conversations with campaign advisers, Republican and Democratic political operatives; members of Congress; and political professionals involved with outside groups poised to be active in the race.
As some of the Sun Belt states (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina) have become far more competitive with Harris in the race, it is still probably true that her most direct route to 270 electoral votes would be to keep the three so-called “Blue Wall” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) and the Omaha-area congressional district in Nebraska in the Democratic column.
Trump’s most direct path to 270 electoral votes would be to keep all the states he won in 2020 and flip Georgia and Pennsylvania (two states he won in 2016) back to his column. In that calculation, it is critical for Trump that he tries to prevent North Carolina from slipping away, which may explain why he is making his second trip there in as many weeks and has upped his investment in television advertising in the Tar Heel state.
Solid Republican: (TOTAL: 188 Electoral Votes)
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)
Leans Republican: (TOTAL: 31 Electoral Votes)
Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1)
Toss-ups: (TOTAL: 94 Electoral Votes)
Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)
Leans Democratic: (TOTAL: 50 Electoral Votes)
Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13)
Solid Democratic: (TOTAL: 175 Electoral Votes)
California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)