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When Wall Street traders decide they’ve maxed out the value they can get from a particular sector of the market — tech, say — they’ll often cash out and move their profits into another area. It’s called a sector rotation, and it happens all the time as part of the natural course of a business cycle.
When consumers decide they’ve maxed out the value they can get from the things they typically buy, business leaders tend to view it with alarm — a sign that folks don’t have the money to spend and therefore a recession must be on the horizon.
But what if those consumers are just behaving like traders, and finding value elsewhere?
On earnings calls in recent weeks, executives have bemoaned the customer “pullback.” McDonald’s and Starbucks sales declined, so there must be some serious belt-tightening going on. On top of that, fewer people are booking Airbnbs, and families are skipping trips to Disneyland.
The horror! Everybody sell, we must be barreling toward an economic cliff!
Of course, that’s not what’s actually happening.
The US economy is still pretty strong, growing at an annualized rate close to 3% in the most recent quarter. The rate of job creation is slowing, and unemployment ticked higher in July more rapidly than expected. Still, there are 6 million more Americans working now compared with before the pandemic, and wages are outpacing inflation.
While any pullback in spending can be a worrying sign for the US economy — a machine fueled largely by people buying things — it’s important to zoom out before you freak out.
McD’s vs. Texas Roadhouse
Yes, we’re buying fewer Big Macs and $7 lattes. But it’s not as if Americans have stopped going to restaurants — they’re just being a bit more discerning when they do.
In fact, as I wrote last month, many Americans are still eager to spend, they’re just not willing to pay Texas Roadhouse prices on McDonald’s food that they summon by tapping buttons on a kiosk and eat in their car.
Instead, they’re going to Texas Roadhouse, where they can sit down and have some service with their meal. Or they’re swinging through Chipotle, which saw sales shoot up 11% last quarter at stores open at least a year.
The travel industry is also seeing demand soften, but it’s softening relative to the huge boost it got in the months after Covid restrictions were lifted. In those days, Americans were flush with savings and making up for a year of missed adventures.
These days, pandemic-era savings are largely gone, as is the pent-up desire to get out of the house at any cost.
That partly explains some of the gloom in the travel industry.
Disney’s parks problem
Airbnb’s stock sank more than 13% Wednesday after it reported second-quarter earnings that missed expectations and warned of more pain to come.
Yes, we are booking fewer Airbnbs. And that may reflect some genuine customer pullback, especially among lower-income travelers who may be opting to stay home. At the same time, travelers who recall a time when Airbnbs were reliably cheaper than hotels have been put off by the home rental site’s cleaning and service fees.
Hotel chains aren’t seeing quite the same gloom.
“While we expect year-over-year growth rates to moderate, we are significantly above pre-pandemic levels and are not seeing signs of consumers reducing their leisure travel,” Hyatt CEO Mark Hoplamazian told investors on an earnings call this week.
Marriott’s second quarter beat expectations, and its CEO said the company expects strong demand to continue.
Disney also surprised investors when it revealed an unexpected weakness in its theme parks business — a core revenue driver for the company — citing “moderation of consumer demand.”
“The lower-income consumer is feeling a little bit of stress. The high-income consumer is traveling internationally,” said Disney Chief Financial Officer Hugh Johnston on an earnings call.
Visitors and travel agents say the place that calls itself the “happiest place on Earth” has become harder than ever to navigate because of the dizzying number of packages on offer.
“You need a PhD to plan Disney World vacation anymore — they’ve made it so, so complicated,” Pete Werner, who runs Dreams Unlimited Travel, told me last year.
Disney’s park woes are not new. For years, fans complained about exorbitant prices for admission and about getting nickel and dimed on food and drink (and countless other perks) once inside the park. But it’s not just the price that’s soured people on Disney — it’s the experience.
“The magic is gone,” one CNN reader commented recently. “They’ve monetized every experience, and everyone is walking around looking anxiously at their phones so they can schedule each adventure … We’re done for those reasons, not because we don’t travel, or can’t afford it.”
All the add-ons, according to Bloomberg, have raised the cost for a typical, week-long trip for a family of four to $25,000, or as much as $40,000 for a top-end experience.
At those prices, you can take the kids … almost anywhere.
A Disney spokesperson declined to comment beyond the earnings call.
Bottom line: When CEOs complain about customers pulling back, beware the messenger. Executives wouldn’t want to admit publicly that their customers simply no longer like their products, which have become more expensive with virtually no added value in the past few years. They certainly wouldn’t want to tell shareholders that the reason demand is soft is because even the entry level version of what they’re selling feels like it’s not worth our time.
