CNN
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It’s perhaps one of the strangest conspiracy theories of all time.
Some fans of former President Donald Trump believe pop star Taylor Swift has been employed in a kind of covert government operation to prop up Joe Biden’s reelection bid and have therefore tried to stigmatize her.
Polling shows this is a bad idea. Swift is one of the most popular figures in America, and these Republicans are out of step with others in thinking she’s being propped up by the government.
A Monmouth University poll released last week lays out the facts well. Swift comes in with a 39% favorable rating, 13% unfavorable rating and 43% saying they have no opinion of her. Among those with an opinion, 75% had a positive one.
Even among Republicans, she scores a 25% favorable to 18% unfavorable rating. That is, more Republicans like her than dislike her. Of those who had an opinion, 58% viewed her favorably.
This lines up well with a Marist College poll from December that showed similar figures once you exclude those with no opinion.
Trump is far more unpopular than Swift. He has a 45% favorable to a 55% unfavorable rating among those with an opinion, according to an aggregate of recent polling. That puts his favorable rating about 25 to 30 points lower than Swift’s, depending on the poll.
This could be why Trump hasn’t humored his base over the concerns about Swift.
Indeed, it would be hard to find anyone more popular than Swift these days. Her favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is far higher from what I can tell than any current politician nationally.
In some ways, one could consider Swift to be a modern-day Oprah Winfrey. It’s a comparison CNN host Michael Smerconish has made. Swift, like Winfrey, seems to make news no matter where she goes.
The comparison is apt when you think back to Winfrey’s endorsement of Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election. Winfrey was regularly hitting Swift levels of popularity back then, when accounting for those without an opinion.
One study suggested that she got Obama about 1 million votes during his primary battle with Hillary Clinton. That may have been enough to help him win the 2008 Democratic nomination in what was a close contest.
The fact that Winfrey proved to be a vote-getter for Obama may be why many Democrats are hoping Swift can do the same for Biden. Swift, who has endorsed Democrats in the past, has not backed Biden’s 2024 bid as of now.
She has, however, been linked to over 30,000 new voter registrations in 2018, when she asked people to sign up to vote. (Most Americans – 68% – approve of Swift encouraging people to vote in the 2024 election, the Monmouth poll found.)
Christopher Polk/TAS/Getty Images
Taylor Swift performs at the Staples Center in Los Angeles in 2015.
From Taylor Swift
Swift was born in 1989 in West Reading, Pennsylvania, and grew up on a Christmas tree farm her father bought. She is seen here with her parents, Scott and Andrea Swift.
From Taylor Swift
On her birthday in 2019, Swift shared
this photo of herself as a child.
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images
A 13-year-old Swift sings the National Anthem before an NBA game in Philadelphia in 2002.
Kevin Winter/ACMA/Getty Images
Swift greets singer Tim McGraw after performing her debut single, titled "Tim McGraw," during the 2007 Academy of Country Music Awards in Las Vegas.
John Mabangalo/Pool/Getty Images
Swift sings the National Anthem before Game 3 of the 2008 World Series in Philadelphia.
Chad Batka/The New York Times/Redux
Swift performs during a sold-out show at New York's Madison Square Garden in 2009. She released her second album, "Fearless," in 2008.
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Swift takes pictures with fans on NBC's "Today" show at New York's Rockefeller Center in 2009.
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Swift prepares backstage at Madison Square Garden in 2009.
Sam Emerson/©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection
Swift poses for a photo with Miley Cyrus and Lucas Till during filming for "Hannah Montana: The Movie" in 2009. In addition to her musical career, Swift has appeared in a handful of movies through the years.
Frank Masi/©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection
Swift sings with the Jonas Brothers during a concert in 2009.
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Kanye West interrupts Swift as she accepts the award for best female video during the 2009 MTV Video Music Awards in New York. "Taylor, I'm really happy for you," West said after grabbing the microphone from a clearly stunned Swift. "I'll let you finish, but Beyonce had one of the best videos of all time! One of the best videos of all time!"
Lucy Nicholson/Reuters
Swift drops one of her four Grammys at the 52nd annual Grammy Awards in Los Angeles in 2010. That year she won album of the year, best country album, best female country vocal performance and best country song.
Christopher Morris/VII/Redux
Swift sits backstage in Auburn Hills, Michigan, during her Fearless tour in 2010.
Josh Haner/The New York Times/Redux
Swift performs in Newark, New Jersey, during her Speak Now tour in 2011.
Kevin Mazur/WireImage/Getty Images
Swift sings for a sold-out crowd in her home state of Pennsylvania in 2011.
Charles Sykes/AP
Swift performs with James Taylor at Madison Square Garden in 2011. She had two sold-out shows at the venue. Before this performance, Swift told the audience she's named after James Taylor. She also mentions Taylor in her song "Begin Again."
Matt Sayles/AP
Swift accepts the award for artist of the year at the 2011 American Music Awards in Los Angeles.
Mark J. Terrill/Invision/AP
Swift crowd surfs at the 2012 MTV Video Music Awards in Los Angeles.
Kevin Mazur/WireImage/Getty Images
Swift performs during the 2012 MTV EMA's in Frankfurt, Germany, in 2012.
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Host Jimmy Fallon appears in a skit with Swift during an episode of "The Tonight Show" in 2014.
Nicholas Harvey/Everett Collection
Swift and Karlie Kloss walk down the runway during the Victoria's Secret fashion show in London in 2014.
Kevin Mazur/WireImage/Getty Images
Swift, Kanye West and Kim Kardashian speak during the 2015 Grammy Awards in Los Angeles. Swift and West appeared to make amends six years after he snatched the mic from her at the 2009 VMAs.
Dana Edelson/NBC/Getty Images
Swift appears in a Saturday Night Live skit with Laraine Newman, Bill Hader, Taran Killam, Kristen Wiig, Keenan Thompson, Fred Armisen, Kerry Washington, Betty White and Bradley Cooper in 2015.
Ethan Miller/Getty Images
Swift accepts the Milestone Award for Youngest ACM Entertainer of the Year from her mother, Andrea, during the Academy of Country Music Awards in Arlington, Texas, in 2015.
Christopher Polk/Getty Images
Swift performs onstage at the Staples Center in Los Angeles during her 1989 tour in 2015.
Tim Boyles/Getty Images
Fans react as Swift performs in Tampa in 2015.
Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP
Selena Gomez and Swift attend the 2016 Grammy Awards in Los Angeles.
Mike Coppola/Getty Images
Swift attends the "Manus x Machina: Fashion In An Age Of Technology" gala at New York's Metropolitan Museum of Art in 2016.
John Shearer/TAS18/Getty Images
Swift performs onstage during the 2018 Reputation tour in Chicago.
Universal Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
Executive producer and composer Andrew Lloyd Webber works with Swift on the set of the 2019 film "Cats," based on Webber's stage musical. Swift played Bombalurina in the movie.
Jeff Kravitz/FilmMagic, Inc/Getty Images
Brandon Urie and Taylor Swift perform at the 2019 Billboard Music Awards. As Swift sang her new single "ME!,"
some on social media pointed out that it looked a lot like Beyonce's iconic show at Coachella in 2018.
Republic Records
Katy Perry and Swift don costumes for Swift's "You Need to Calm Down" music video in 2019.
TAS Rights Management/Getty Images
Jack Antonoff, Swift and Aaron Dessner perform onstage at 2021 Grammy Awards. The three artists collaborated for Swift's "Folklore" and "Evermore" records.
Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP
Swift poses with her album of the year award for "Folklore" at the 2021 Grammy Awards.
Will Heath/NBC/Getty Images
Swift performs on Saturday Night Live in November 2021, the day after she released the re-recording of her album "Red."
Seth Wenig/AP
Swift delivers a commencement speech at New York University in May 2022. She received an honorary doctorate from the university.
Terence Rushin/TAS23/Getty Images
Swift performs on stage during an
"Eras Tour" concert in Atlanta in April 2023. During the tour, the singer has been credited for boosting local economies and breaking attendance records.
Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Swift celebrates with her boyfriend, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, after the Chiefs
won the AFC Championship in January 2024 and clinched a spot in the Super Bowl.
John Shearer/Getty Images
Swift’s previous backing of liberal causes may also be part of the reason why Trump supporters are going after her. (Her boyfriend, NFL tight end Travis Kelce, has done ads for Covid-19 vaccinations, something a lot of Republicans are against as well.)
But it takes a gigantic logical leap to go from Swift supporting Democrats to the government covertly propping her up. It’s not a leap most Americans will make.
About 1 in 6 Americans (18%) say they think such a conspiracy theory is true. On the one hand, that seems like a high number. On the other hand, the vast majority of Americans (73%) think it’s false.
In fact, you can find 18% of Americans who believe nearly anything, especially if there is a partisan cue attached to it. Between 17% and 27% of Americans said Obama was probably or definitely born outside the United States, according to CNN polling. He was, of course, born in Hawaii.
And like with the Obama “birther” conspiracy theory, those who believe the one about Swift come mostly from the right side of the aisle. Nearly a third of Republicans (32%) said there was a secret government plot to elevate Swift. Just 6% of Democrats thought the same, which is less than the percentage of Americans who think that the Earth is flat or that the government faked the moon landing.
The bottom line is that most Americans who have an opinion on Swift like her. There’s not been any overall backlash against her or those associated with her in any measurable way.
Swift has of late only helped contribute to the popularity of others. Her boyfriend’s podcast flew up the charts when they became a couple. The NFL saw record ratings for the recent Super Bowl, helped immensely by major growth among 18- to 24-year-old women (a core Swift demographic).
Any Republican going against Swift would be making a major mistake.