JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon kicked off third-quarter earnings season Friday with a stern warning to investors: “Now may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” he wrote in the company’s report.
The wars in Ukraine, Israel and Gaza “may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade, and geopolitical relationships.”
Still, the world’s largest bank beat analysts’ expectations last quarter.
The bank reported earnings of $4.33 per share versus the $3.90 expected by analysts. Revenue clocked in at $39.9 billion, beating the $39.57 billion expected, according to Refinitiv data.
With nearly $3.9 trillion in assets, JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the United States and a bellwether for the US economy.
The New York-based bank also reported a 6% drop in investment banking revenue in the third quarter. Investment banking fees fell by 3% because of lower equity and debt underwriting activity, said the bank.
Deposits fell by 4% from a year earlier during the third quarter.
A wall of worry
In a call on Friday morning, Dimon told CNN that bank executives across the United States are “climbing the wall of worry,” referring to the Wall Street truism that explains how markets can remain strong through economic uncertainty and negative news. “And we should,” said Dimon. “That’s kind of our job, to be prepared for potential outcomes you don’t expect.” Wall Street, he said, is often focused on current conditions instead of preparing for what could come next.
“We do a hundred stress tests a week,” said Dimon. “Usually, geopolitics presents itself as a deep recession or a mild recession… And markets doing well is not a reason ever to say they will continue to do well.”
Still, economists at JPMorgan now say that a soft landing — where the economy slows down without triggering a severe downturn and high unemployment — is now more likely than a recession.
“I’m less concerned about the economic effect than obviously the geopolitical,” Dimon said Friday. “Currently, US consumers and businesses generally remain healthy.”
Dimon also said that tight labor markets and high government debt levels could keep inflation elevated for some time and that interest rates could rise further.
In previous interviews, Dimon has said that the Federal Reserve may be far from finished with its aggressive regimen of interest rate hikes in the fight against elevated inflation, and that it’s possible the central bank will continue hiking rates by another 1.5 percentage points, to 7%.
Shares of the bank were trading 4.8% higher on Friday.
Wells Fargo shares also rose 4.3% after beating top- and bottom-line expectations, and Citigroup shares added 3.7% after reporting better-than-expected revenue.
