The evidence in the indictment against Donald Trump for his alleged mishandling of classified documents after leaving office can seem “jaw-dropping”.
The case marks the first time a former president has been indicted in federal court and just the second time a former president had been indicted anywhere (after Trump himself, earlier this year in New York county court).
What makes the charges even more ahistorical is that they come at a time when Trump is running for president. So just how will this new indictment play on the campaign trail?
Let’s just say we should be, at least initially, skeptical that Trump will be penalized in the polls.
An ABC News/Washington Post survey completed at the beginning of May asked whether Trump should face criminal charges over his alleged actions with the classified documents. A majority of Americans (54%) said he should. Just 38% said he should not.
That on its face may seem devastating for Trump. Keep in mind, though, that 50% of Americans indicated in an ABC News/Ipsos poll after his New York indictment related to alleged hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. Far fewer Americans (33%) said he shouldn’t have.
The splits between “yes” and “no” on the two indictments are similar in the two surveys.
Yet, Trump didn’t see a polling penalty after his indictment in New York. His general election polling against President Joe Biden remained tight. Biden was a point ahead of him in an average of national surveys before the New York indictment. Today, Biden is, on average, tied with Trump in national polls.
Opinions on whether Trump should face charges are clearly correlated with how people feel about him overall. His national unfavorability rating averages out to around 57%. His favorability rating averages out to approximately 38%. That’s quite close to the 54% to 38% divide we saw in the ABC/Post survey on whether Trump should be indicted over the classified documents.
Indeed, outside of his inauguration in January 2017 and the opening days of the Covid-19 pandemic in early spring 2020, Trump has been consistently unpopular among the general electorate.
He only won in 2016 – and has stayed competitive in 2024 polling – because his opponents and potential opponents have been unpopular too.
One way Trump could lose ground against Biden is if Republicans start to abandon him. Polling prior to his indictment in federal court suggests we shouldn’t hold our breath for that to occur.
Just 17% of Republicans in the ABC/Post poll believed that Trump should be charged over how he handled classified documents. Most (75%) said he should not be.
Maybe those percentages will start changing after Trump is arraigned in Miami on Tuesday. But I’m skeptical. The percentage of Republicans who thought he should be charged in New York (14% on average) is awfully similar to what we saw with the federal case.
Both figures are nearly identical to Trump’s unfavorability rating among Republicans nationally (18% on average).
Perhaps, the bigger question is whether Trump induces the same “rally around the flag” effect within the GOP that he benefited from after getting indicted in New York. Trump’s support among Republicans in national primary surveys went from the mid-40s on average to the mid-50s, as his polling lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, seen by many as his chief GOP rival, boomed to over 30 points.
Overcoming another big boost for Trump in the primary polls would be a herculean task for his Republican rivals.
There have been some signs, however, that Trump’s post-New York indictment bump has stalled and even receded somewhat. The idea that he was always going to be well ahead in the Republican race goes against history.
Recall that the former president was polling in the low 40s nationally, and was even trailing in some early state polls at the beginning of the year.
Trump is beatable in a Republican primary. Whether another indictment is the way to eat into his support among Republicans is a whole other question.