The war in Ukraine drew a bright line under the period of High Putinism, a decade that began with Putin’s controversial return to the presidency in 2012. That era, in hindsight, was a prelude to the current war: Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and backed armed separatists in Ukraine’s Donbas region, while Putin’s technocrats worked on sanction-proofing the Russian economy.
Russia is now in an uncertain new phase, and it’s clear there will be no rewind, no return to the status quo ante, for ordinary citizens.
So is Putin’s grip on power unchallenged? Rumors are now flying inside the country about another wave of mobilization. And in Moscow, signs of elite competition are beginning to emerge, even as some Russians are seeing through the cracks in the wall of state propaganda.
On February 2, Putin paid a visit to the southern Russian city of Volgograd to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory at what was then called Stalingrad, a crucial turning point in what the Russians call the Great Patriotic War.
“Those who draw the European countries, including Germany, into a new war with Russia – and all the more irresponsibly declare this as a fait accompli – those who expect to win a victory over Russia on the battlefield, apparently do not understand that a modern war with Russia will be completely different for them,” he warned.
“Putin arrived in Volgograd, which was renamed Stalingrad for a few days on the occasion of the anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad,” Rogov wrote on Telegram. “The anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad, which is perceived as a turning point in the Patriotic War, is, of course, used as a great allusion and patriotic warm-up before the decisive second offensive against Ukraine that is being prepared.”
Ukrainian officials have been warning for weeks that Russia may be preparing a major new assault, perhaps to coincide with the anniversary of the 2022 invasion. Back in September, Putin ordered a “partial mobilization” after a swift and unexpected Ukrainian counteroffensive that chased Russian forces out of the northeastern Kharkiv region and set the stage for Ukraine’s recapture of the southern city of Kherson. Many of those troops have now gone through the training pipeline, further fueling speculation that Russia is committed to a manpower-intensive war of attrition.
Observers also note that Russia’s military has been adapting. While Putin never got the victory parade in Kyiv his generals were planning for, he has appointed a new battlefield commander, signaling another change in strategy.
“After the failure of the (2022) blitzkrieg, Russia adapted and placed its bets on a long war, relying on its superior numbers in population, resources, military industry and the size of its territory beyond reach of enemy strikes,” Russian political observer and commentator Alexander Baunov wrote in a recent Telegram post. “This is a war of attrition that can be won without involving too many people … On the strategy of ‘wait them out, add pressure, put the squeeze on.’”
War, however, is fluid and unpredictable. As Baunov noted, the recent decision by Germany, the United States and other European allies to deliver main battle tanks to Ukraine may test Putin’s long game.
“A return to rapid warfare with tanks ruins this new strategy that Russia has just set its sights on,” Baunov wrote. “New people may also be needed to hold the front, and this is risky.”
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Cars burn after a
Russian military strike in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on October 10. At least 19 people were killed and more than 100 injured in Russian missile strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on Monday as Moscow targeted critical energy infrastructure.
Ukrainian State Emergency Service/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
A fireman helps an injured civilian after several explosions hit the Shevchenkivskyi district of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, on October 10.
Jose Colon/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Firefighters conduct work on a damaged building after a Russian missile attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on October 10.
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A huge blast severely damaged the only bridge connecting annexed Crimea to the Russian mainland on October 8. At least three people were killed in the explosion, which caused parts of Europe's longest bridge to collapse, according to Russian officials.
Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian soldiers ride on an armored vehicle near the recently retaken town of Lyman in Donetsk region on October 6, as the
Ukrainian military continues to advance into several of the areas Russia now claims as its own.
Marina Moiseyenko/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian firefighters attend to the site of a missile strike in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on October 6.
Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian soldiers prepare to fire a BM-21 'Grad' multiple rocket launcher towards Russian positions in the Kharkiv region on October 4.
Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Head of the separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Denis Pushilin, left, and Secretary of the United Russia Party's General Council Andrey Turchak attend a news conference on preliminary
results of a referendum on the joining of the DPR to Russia, in Donetsk, Ukraine, on September 27.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
Anton Krasyvyi rows passengers across the Siverskyi-Donets river in front of a destroyed bridge, so they can visit relatives in Staryi-Saltiv, Ukraine, on September 27.
Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images
People wait for food aid distributed by the local branch of Caritas Internationalis, a Catholic charity organisation, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on September 27.
AFP/Getty Images
A man glues a
referendum poster reading "Yes" in Berdyansk, Ukraine, on September 26. Russia is attempting to annex up to 18% of Ukrainian territory, with President Vladimir Putin expected to host a ceremony in the Kremlin to declare four occupied Ukrainian territories part of Russia.
Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images
Forensic technicians operate at the site of a
mass grave in a forest on the outskirts of Izyum, eastern Ukraine on September 18. Ukrainian authorities discovered hundreds of graves outside the formerly Russian-occupied city.
Kostiantyn Liberov/AP
Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters put out a fire after a Russian rocket attack hit an electric power station in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on September 11.
Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, speaks to the press at his hotel before leaving to
inspect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on September 1.
Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto/Getty Images
Graves of fallen soldiers in Lychakiv Cemetery, Lviv, as Ukrainians celebrate Independence Day, and mark the
six month anniversary of the Russian invasion, on August 24.
Vadim Belikov/AP
Rockets launched from the Belgorod region in Russia are seen at dawn in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on August 15.
David Goldman/AP
Valentyna Kondratieva, 75, left, is comforted by a neighbor as they stand outside her damaged home, in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on August 13, after a rocket attack.
NurPhoto/Getty Images
The bulk carrier NAVI STAR, transporting a cargo of corn, is seen
leaving port of Odesa, Ukraine, on August 5.
Kostiantyn Liberov/AP
Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters attend to a fire at an oil depot in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, on August 2.
Stanislav Kozliuk/Reuters
A firefighter extinguishes a burning hospital building hit by a
Russian missile strike in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, on August 1.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Russian tanks near the settlement of Olenivka in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on July 29.
Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters
Students at a military school write letters to Ukrainian servicemen during a lesson in Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 27.
Nacho Doce/Reuters
Firefighters rest as their colleagues remove debris during the search for bodies at the Central House of Culture, in Chuhuiv, Ukraine, after an air strike on July 25.
Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters
A man holds the hand of his 13 year-old son, killed by a Russian military strike, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 20.
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Ukrainian service members fire a shell from a towed howitzer FH-70 at the front line in the Donbas region, Ukraine, on July 18.
Miguel Medina/AFP/Getty Images
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Local residents look on as smoke rises after shelling in Donetsk, Ukraine, on July 7.
Wojciech Grzedzinski/The Washington Post/Getty Images
A wounded woman is transported to an ambulance in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on July 7.
Miguel Medina/AFP/Getty Images
A farmer drives a combine harvester past a crater suspected to be caused by an air strike near Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on July 7.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
A Ukrainian soldier with the 14th Mechanized Brigade of Prince Roman the Great works in his tank as the unit awaits their next mission on July 1.
Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
People attend a funeral ceremony for Ukrainian serviceman Volodymyr Kochetov, 46, in the village of Babyntsi, Ukraine, on June 30.
Oleg Petrasyuk/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Firefighters clear rubble at the Amstor shopping mall in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, Ukraine, on June 28.
Efrem Lukatsky/AP
Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters work to take away debris at a shopping mall after a
rocket attack in Kremenchuk, Ukraine, on June 28.
Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a working
session of G7 leaders via video link from his office in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday June 27.
Maxym Marusenko/NURPHO/AP
An apartment building in the Shevchenkivskiy district of Kyiv, Ukraine, is damaged during a Russian airstrike, on June 26. Several explosions rocked the west of the Ukrainian capital in the early hours of Sunday morning, with at least two residential buildings struck, according to Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko.
Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters
Ukrainian service members patrol an area in the city of
Severodonetsk, Ukraine, on June 20.
Oleksandr Khomenko/NurPhoto/Reuters
People light flares in memory of the Ukrainian activist Roman Ratushnyi during a farewell ceremony at Baikove cemetery, Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 18.
Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance/Getty Images
Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance/Getty Images
Young people swing in front of destroyed residential buildings in Borodyanka, Ukraine, on June 15.
Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images
A Ukrainian bomb disposal expert looks at an ordnance shell during a mine clearance operation in Solonytsivka, near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on June 15.
Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian servicemen fire a French 155mm CAESAR self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 15.
Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
A forensic technician inspects a
mass grave near the village of Vorzel in the Bucha district near Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 13.
Yuri Kadobnov/AFP/Getty Images
Russian servicemen guard an area of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, Ukraine, on June 13.
Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters
Local residents walk along an empty street as smoke rises in the background in the town of Lysychansk, Ukraine, on June 10.
Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian troops fire surface-to-surface rockets from
MLRS towards Russian positions at the front line in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 7.
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
A Ukrainian soldier holds a next generation light anti-tank weapon (NLAW) at a position on the front line near Bakhmut in the Donbas region of Ukraine on June 5.
Natacha Pisarenko/AP
U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, left, listens to Ukraine's Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktov during a tour of Borodyanka, Ukraine, on June 4.
Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images
Local residents examine a destroyed Russian tank outside of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday, May 31. It has now been 100 days since Russia invaded.
Ukrainian Presidential Press Office/AP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, third from left, visits front-line positions during a trip to the Kharkiv region on Sunday, May 29.
Maxym Marusenko/Reuters
Russian soldier Vadim Shishimarin, 21, is
sentenced to life in prison by a Ukrainian court in Kyiv on May 23. He was convicted of killing an unarmed civilian. It was the first war crimes trial arising from Russia's invasion.
Alexei Alexandrov/AP
Buses with Ukrainian servicemen
evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant wait near a prison in Olyonivka on May 17. The steel plant was the last holdout in Mariupol, a city that had become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance under relentless Russian bombardment.
Bernat Armangue/AP
Ukrainian servicemen fire mortars toward Russian positions in the east Kharkiv region of Ukraine on May 17.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
A woman named Tatyana searches for her husband's grave in the settlement of Staryi Krym, outside Mariupol, on May 15.
Ricardo Moraes/Reuters
Ukrainian service personnel work inside a basement used as a command post in the Kharkiv region on May 15.
Emilio Morenatti/AP
Grieving relatives attend the funeral of Pankratov Oleksandr, a Ukrainian military serviceman, in Lviv, Ukraine, on May 14.
Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian people evacuated from Mariupol arrive on buses at a registration and processing area for
internally displaced people in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on May 8.
Felipe Dana/AP
Ukrainian serviceman and emergency workers carry the body of a Russian soldier into a refrigerated train in Kharkiv on May 5. The bodies of more than 40 Russian soldiers were being stored in the refrigerated car.
AP
Smoke rises from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol on May 5.
Dogukan Keskinkilic/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Ukrainian soldiers clear mines at the
Antonov Airport in Hostomel, Ukraine, on May 5.
AP
Vehicles are on
fire at an oil depot in Makiivka, Ukraine, after missiles struck a facility in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces on May 4.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
Natalia Pototska cries next to her grandson Matviy as they arrive at a center for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia on May 2.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Pro-Russian troops stand guard next to a bus transporting evacuees near a temporary accommodation center in the Ukrainian village of Bezimenne on May 1.
Ukrainian Presidential Press Office/Getty Images
Jorge Silva/Reuters
A man stands on the balcony of his apartment after a missile strike damaged a residential building in Ukraine's Donetsk region on April 30.
Emilio Morenatti/AP
A woman walks through the site of an explosion in Kyiv on April 29. Russia
struck the Ukrainian capital shortly after a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
EyePress News/Reuters
Guterres speaks during his meeting with Zelensky on April 28.
Francisco Seco/AP
A team member with the International Atomic Energy Agency arrives at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Chernobyl, Ukraine, on April 26. Russian forces withdrew from Chernobyl, the site of the world's worst nuclear disaster, in March.
Zohra Bensemra/Reuters
Maria, 13, holds a photograph of her father, Yurii Alekseev, as she and her godfather, Igor Tarkovskii, attend Alekseev's funeral in Bucha, Ukraine, on April 26. Alekseev, 50, was a territorial defense member who was killed by Russian soldiers, according to his family.
Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
attend a meeting in Kyiv with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on April 24.
Leon Neal/Getty Images
A couple looks at a memorial wall in Lviv on April 24. The wall shows Ukrainian civilians who have been killed during the Russian invasion.
Alexey Furman/Getty Images
People pray during an
Easter church service at St. Michael's Cathedral in Kyiv on April 24.
Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters
Women walk between sandbags and anti-tank barricades in Zhytomyr, Ukraine, to attend a blessing of traditional Easter food baskets on April 23.
Yasuyoshi/Chiba/AFP/Getty Images
Members of the Ukrainian Red Cross talk before moving an elderly woman to an ambulance in a bunker under a factory in Severodonetsk, Ukraine, on April 22.
Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters
A woman who recently evacuated Mariupol cries after arriving at a registration center for internally displaced people in Zaporizhzhia on April 21.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Emilio Morenatti/AP
Vova, 10, looks at the body of his mother, Maryna, lying in a coffin as his father, Ivan, prays during her funeral in Bucha on April 20. She died during Russia's occupation of the city, as the family sheltered in a cold basement for more than a month.
Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, right, speaks with European Council President Charles Michel during a meeting in Kyiv on April 20.
Serhii Nuzhnenko/Reuters
A Ukrainian serviceman stands next to a multiple rocket-launch system in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine on April 20.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Firefighters work in Lviv after a civilian building was hit by a Russian missile on April 18.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Smoke rises above Mariupol on April 18.
Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images
Women clean inside a damaged building at the Vizar company military-industrial complex in Vyshneve, Ukraine, on April 15. The site, on the outskirts of Kyiv, was hit by Russian strikes.
Alkis Konstantinidis/Reuters
Firefighters work at a burning building in Kharkiv following a missile attack near the Kharkiv International Airport on April 12.
Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters
Mourners react in Stebnyk, Ukraine, during the funeral ceremony of Ukrainian serviceman Roman Tiaka. Tiaka was 47.
Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Ukrainian forces fire rockets toward Russian positions in Ukraine's Donbas region on April 10.
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
A man works to catalog some of the bodies of civilians who were killed in and around Bucha.
Shocking images showing the bodies of civilians scattered across the suburb of Kyiv sparked international outrage and raised the urgency of ongoing investigations into alleged Russian war crimes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Russian leaders to be held accountable for the actions of the nation's military. The Russian Ministry of Defense, without evidence, claimed the extensive footage of Bucha was "fake."
Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Search-and-rescue teams remove debris after the Ukrainian army regained control of Borodianka, Ukraine, on April 6.
Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images
People wait to board a train as they flee Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on April 5.
Matthew Hatcher/SOPA Images/Sipa USA/AP
Destruction is seen in Borodianka on April 5. Borodianka was home to 13,000 people before the war, but most fled after Russia's invasion.
What was left of the town, after intense shelling and devastating airstrikes, was then occupied by Russian forces.
Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media about the alleged atrocities in Bucha on April 4. "It's very difficult to negotiate when you see what (the Russians) have done here,"
Zelensky emphasized as he stood in the town, surrounded by security.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Anna Zhelisko touches the casket of her grandson, Ukrainian soldier Dmitry Zhelisko, as it arrives for his funeral in Chervonohrad, Ukraine, on April 3. He died fighting the Russian army near Kharkiv.
Petros Giannakouris/AP
Smoke rises over Odesa, Ukraine, on April 3. The Russian defense ministry
confirmed a strike on an oil refinery and fuel storage facilities in the port city.
Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images
Bodies lie on a street in Bucha on April 2. Images captured by Agence France-Presse showed at least 20 civilian men dead.
Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images
A Ukrainian serviceman stands with a handcuffed Russian soldier in Kharkiv on March 31.
Maxar Technologies
A satellite image shows a shelled warehouse that was being used by the Red Cross in Mariupol on March 29.
Arda Kucukkaya/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Russian and Ukrainian delegations
meet in Istanbul for talks on March 29. Russia said it would "drastically reduce" its military assault on the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv. The announcement came after Ukrainian and Western intelligence assessments recently suggested that Russia's advance on Kyiv was stalling. The talks also covered other important issues, including the future of the eastern Donbas region, the fate of Crimea, a broad alliance of security guarantors and a potential meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Rodrigo Abd/AP
A woman named Julia cries next to her 6-year-old daughter, Veronika, while talking to the press in Brovary, Ukraine, on March 29.
Petros Giannakouris/AP
The regional government headquarters of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, is damaged
following a Russian attack on March 29. At least nine people were killed, according to the Mykolaiv regional media office's Telegram channel.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
An armored convoy of pro-Russian troops travel on a road leading to Mariupol on March 28.
Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
A volunteer weaves a bulletproof vest in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on March 28.
Sedat Suna/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
A woman lights a candle during the Sunday service at a monastery in Odesa on March 27.
Vadim Ghirda/AP
A Ukrainian serviceman stands in a heavily damaged building in Stoyanka, Ukraine, on March 27.
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
Orphaned children travel by train after fleeing the Russian-controlled town of Polohy, Ukraine, on March 26.
Felipe Dana/AP
A man recovers items from a burning shop following a Russian attack in Kharkiv on March 25.
Denzel/Bundesregierung/Getty Images
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses world leaders via video at the NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, on March 24. Zelensky stopped short of issuing his usual request for a no-fly zone, but he did say Ukraine needs fighter jets, tanks and better air defenses.
Pavlo Palamarchuk/Reuters
A child holds a Ukrainian flag in front of the Taras Shevchenko monument as members of the Ukrainian National Guard band perform in Lviv on March 24.
Vadim Ghirda/AP
A firefighter sprays water inside a house that was destroyed by shelling in Kyiv on March 23.
Ivor Prickett/The New York Times/Redux
Svetlana Ilyuhina looks at the wreckage of her home in Kyiv following a Russian rocket attack on March 23. "First there was smoke, and then everything went black," she said.
Serhii Nuzhnenko/Reuters
Pictures lie amid the rubble of a house in Kyiv on March 23.
Vadim Ghirda/AP
A woman cleans up a room March 21 in a building that was damaged by bombing in Kyiv.
Emin Sansar/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
The Retroville shopping mall is seen in Kyiv after Russian shelling on March 21.
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
People share dinner and sing "Happy Birthday" during a celebration in Kyiv on March 20. This studio space has turned into a bomb shelter for approximately 25 artists who are volunteering to help the war effort.
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Former Ukrainian Parliament member Tetiana Chornovol, now a service member and operator of an anti-tank guided missile system, examines a Russian tank she destroyed in a recent battle in the Kyiv region.
Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
A Ukrainian serviceman stands among debris after shelling in a residential area in Kyiv on March 18.
White House Photo
US President Joe Biden holds a virtual meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in this photo that was released by the White House on March 18. Biden sought to use
the 110-minute call to dissuade Xi from assisting Russia in its war on Ukraine.
Dmytro Smolyenko/Ukrinform/NurPhoto/Reuters
Staff members attend to a child at a children's hospital in Zaporizhzhia on March 18.
ALEXANDER VILF/POOL/AFP/Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a rally at a stadium in Moscow on March 18. Speaking from a stage in front of a banner that read "for a world without Nazism," Putin said Russia "will definitely implement all our plans" in Ukraine. He insisted that national unity was the strongest in a long time, even as many people flee Russia or protest against war in the streets. State workers were told by authorities to attend
the celebration, which commemorated the eighth year of Russia's annexation of Crimea.
Drew Angerer/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky receives a standing ovation as he virtually addresses the US Congress on March 16.
The historic speech occurred as the United States is under pressure to provide more military assistance to the embattled country.
Felipe Dana/AP
An elderly woman is helped by police officers after she was rescued from an apartment that was hit by shelling in Kyiv on March 15.
Felipe Dana/AP
Firefighters work to extinguish flames at an apartment building in Kyiv on March 15.
Bernat Armangue/AP
Military cadets attend a funeral ceremony at a church in Lviv on March 15. The funeral was for four of the Ukrainian servicemen who were killed during
an airstrike on the Yavoriv military base near the Polish border. Local authorities say 35 people were killed.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
A woman walks past a damaged window to lay flowers at a makeshift memorial for victims in Donetsk, Ukraine, on March 15.
Felipe Dana/AP
Ukrainian soldiers take cover from incoming artillery fire in Irpin, Ukraine, on March 13.
Alex Lourie/Redux
A Ukrainian soldier surveys a destroyed government building in Kharkiv on March 13.
Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
A mother and son rest in Lviv, Ukraine, while waiting to board a train to Poland on March 12.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
An explosion is seen at an apartment building in Mariupol on March 11. The city in southeastern Ukraine has been
besieged by Russian forces.
Valeria Ferraro/SOPA Images/Sipa USA/AP
People pay their respects during
a funeral service for three Ukrainian soldiers in Lviv on March 11. Senior Soldier Andrii Stefanyshyn, 39; Senior Lt. Taras Didukh, 25; and Sgt. Dmytro Kabakov, 58, were laid to rest at the Saints Peter and Paul Garrison Church. Even in this sacred space, the sounds of war intruded: an air raid siren audible under the sound of prayer and weeping. Yet no one stirred. Residents are now inured to the near-daily warnings of an air attack.
Ozan Kose/AFP/Getty Images
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gives a news conference after meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Antalya, Turkey, on March 10. Two weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
Lavrov falsely claimed that his country "did not attack" its neighbor.
Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
A resident takes shelter in a basement in Irpin on March 10.
Due to heavy fighting, Irpin has been without heat, water or electricity for several days.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
Dead bodies are placed into a mass grave on the outskirts of Mariupol on March 9. With overflowing morgues and repeated shelling, the city has been
unable to hold proper burials.
Vadim Ghirda/AP
Cars drive past a destroyed Russian tank as civilians leave Irpin on March 9. A Ukrainian official said lines of vehicles
stretched for miles as people tried to escape fighting in districts to the north and northwest of Kyiv.
Jessica Taylor/UK Parliament/AP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is displayed on a screen as he
addresses British lawmakers via video on March 8. "We will not give up and we will not lose. We will fight until the end at sea, in the air. We will continue fighting for our land, whatever the cost," he said in his comments translated by an interpreter. The House of Commons gave Zelensky a standing ovation at the end of his address.
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
A firefighter works to extinguish flames after a chemical warehouse was reportedly hit by Russian shelling near Kalynivka, Ukraine, on March 8.
Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
Members of the Red Cross help people fleeing the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 7.
Diego Herrera Carcedo/AP
The dead bodies of civilians killed while trying to flee are covered by sheets in Irpin on March 6. CNN determined they were killed in
a Russian military strike.
Alex Lourie/Redux
Civilians seek protection in a basement bomb shelter in Kyiv on March 6.
Marcus Yam/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images
Local residents help clear the rubble of a home that was destroyed by a suspected Russian airstrike in Markhalivka, Ukraine, on March 5.
Salwan Georges/The Washington Post/Getty Images
George Keburia says goodbye to his wife and children as they board a train in Odesa on March 5. They were heading to Lviv.
Eric Bouvet/VII/Redux
Ukrainian officials say several people were injured in a
Russian missile attack on Kyiv on Thursday, April 28, which occurred as the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres was finishing a visit to the Ukrainian capital.
Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomes UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres before
their meeting, in Kyiv, on April 28.
Daniel Leal/AFP/Getty Images
A statue is covered in Lviv on March 5.
Residents wrapped statues in protective sheets to try to safeguard historic monuments across the city.
Emilio Morenatti/AP
Ukrainians crowd under a destroyed bridge as they try to flee across the Irpin River on the outskirts of Kyiv on March 5.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
Marina Yatsko runs behind her boyfriend, Fedor, as they arrive at the hospital with her
18-month-old son, Kirill, who was wounded by shelling in Mariupol on March 4. Medical workers frantically tried to save the boy's life, but he didn't survive.
Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
People remove personal belongings from a burning house after shelling in Irpin on March 4.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Oksana and her son Dmytro stand over the open casket of her husband, Volodymyr Nezhenets, during his funeral in Kyiv on March 4.
According to the Washington Post, he was a member of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces, which is comprised mostly of volunteers.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
People crowd on a platform as they try to board a westbound train in Kyiv on March 4.
Emilio Morenatti/AP
A bullet-ridden bus is seen after an ambush in Kyiv on March 4.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
People take shelter on the floor of a hospital during shelling in Mariupol on March 4.
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
A member of the Ukrainian military gives instructions to civilians in Irpin on March 4. They were about to board an evacuation train headed to Kyiv.
Zaporizhzhya NPP/YouTube/Reuters
Attila Kisbenedek/AFP/Getty Images
A Ukrainian child rests on a bed at a temporary refugee center in Záhony, Hungary, on March 4.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Leos Leonid recovers at a hospital in Kyiv on March 3. The 64-year-old survived being crushed when an armored vehicle drove over his car.
Video of the incident was widely shared on social media.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
A Ukrainian soldier carries a baby across a destroyed bridge on the outskirts of Kyiv on March 3.
Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images
Residents react in front of a burning building after shelling in Kharkiv on March 3.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
A Ukrainian soldier who says he was shot three times in the opening days of the invasion sits on a hospital bed in Kyiv on March 3.
Diego Herrera/Europa Press/Getty Images
People form a human chain to transfer supplies into Kyiv on March 3.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
A cemetery worker digs graves for Ukrainian soldiers in Kyiv on March 3.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
A mother cares for her two infant sons in the underground shelter of a maternity hospital in Kyiv on March 3. She gave birth a day earlier, and she and her husband haven't yet decided on names for the twins.
Mikhail Palinchak/Reuters
A member of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces sits with a weapon in Kyiv on March 2.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
Paramedics treat an elderly woman wounded by shelling before transferring her to a hospital in Mariupol on March 2.
Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters
Residents of Zhytomyr work in the remains of a residential building on March 2. The building was destroyed by shelling.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Vadim Ghirda/AP
A member of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces inspects damage in the backyard of a house in Gorenka on March 2.
Andrei Pungovschi/Bloomberg/Getty Images
A Ukrainian woman takes her children over the border in Siret, Romania, on March 2. Many Ukrainians are fleeing the country at a pace that could turn into "Europe's largest refugee crisis this century," the United Nations Refugee Agency said.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Militia members set up anti-tank barricades in Kyiv on March 2.
Murat Saka/dia images/Getty Images
People wait at a train station in Kyiv on March 2.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
People shelter in a subway station in Kyiv on March 2.
Umit Bektas/Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky poses for a picture in a Kyiv bunker after
an exclusive interview with CNN and Reuters on March 1. Zelensky said that as long as Moscow's attacks on Ukrainian cities continued, little progress could be made in talks between the two nations. "It's important to stop bombing people, and then we can move on and sit at the negotiation table," he said.
Carlos Barria/Reuters
An explosion is seen at a TV tower in Kyiv on March 1.
Russian forces fired rockets near the tower and struck a Holocaust memorial site in Kyiv hours after warning of "high-precision" strikes on other facilities linked to Ukrainian security agencies.
Raphael Lafargue/Abaca/Sipa/AP
Ukrainian soldiers attend Mass at an Orthodox monastery in Kyiv on March 1.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
Medical workers show a mother her newborn after she gave birth at a maternity hospital in Mariupol on March 1. The hospital is now also used as a medical ward and bomb shelter.
Sergey Dolzhenko/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
An administrative building is seen in Kharkiv after Russian shelling on March 1. Russian forces have scaled up their bombardment of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city.
Pavel Dorogoy/AP
Ukrainian emergency workers carry a body of a victim following shelling that hit the City Hall building in Kharkiv on March 1.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
A woman named Helen comforts her 8-year-old daughter, Polina, in the bomb shelter of a Kyiv children's hospital on March 1. The girl was at the hospital being treated for encephalitis, or inflammation of the brain.
Visar Kryeziu/AP
Ukrainian refugees try to stay warm at the Medyka border crossing in Poland on March 1.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Volunteers in Kyiv sign up to join Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces on February 28.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
A member of the Territorial Defense Forces loads rifle magazines in Kyiv on February 28.
Alexandr Kryazhev/Sputnik/AP
Delegations from Russia and Ukraine
hold talks in Belarus on February 28. Both sides discussed a potential "ceasefire and the end of combat actions on the territory of Ukraine," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhaylo Podolyak told reporters. Without going into detail, Podolyak said that both sides would return to their capitals for consultations over whether to implement a number of "decisions."
Akos Stiller/Bloomberg/Getty Images
A displaced Ukrainian cradles her child at a temporary shelter set up inside a gymnasium in Beregsurány, Hungary, on February 28.
Aytac Unal/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Ukrainian forces order a man to the ground on February 28 as they increased security measures amid Russian attacks in Kyiv.
Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images
Smoke billows over the Ukrainian city of Vasylkiv, just outside Kyiv on February 27. A fire at an oil storage area was seen raging at the Vasylkiv Air Base.
Bernat Armangue/AP
People wait on a platform inside the railway station in Lviv on February 27. Thousands of people at Lviv's main train station attempted to board trains that would take them out of Ukraine.
Marienko Andrew/AP
A Russian armored vehicle burns after fighting in Kharkiv on February 27. Street fighting broke out as Russian troops entered Ukraine's second-largest city, and residents were urged to stay in shelters and not travel.
Serhii Hudak/Reuters
Local residents prepare Molotov cocktails in Uzhhorod, Ukraine, on February 27.
Natalie Thomas/Reuters
Cars line up on the road outside Mostyska, Ukraine, as people attempt to flee to Poland on February 27.
Efrem Lukatsky/AP
Ukrainian troops in Kyiv escort a prisoner February 27 who they suspected of being a Russian agent.
Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
Maksim Levin/Reuters
Ukrainian service members take position at the Vasylkiv Air Base near Kyiv on February 27.
Vadim Ghirda/AP
A woman sleeps on chairs February 27 in the underground parking lot of a Kyiv hotel that has been turned into a bomb shelter.
Daniel Leal/AFP/Getty Images
An apartment building in Kyiv is seen after it was damaged by shelling on February 26. The outer walls of several apartment units appeared to be blown out entirely, with the interiors blackened and debris hanging loose.
Pierre Crom/Getty Images
A police vehicle patrols the streets of Kyiv on February 26.
Brendan Hoffman/The New York Times/Redux
Following a national directive to help complicate the invading Russian Army's attempts to navigate, a road worker removes signs near Pisarivka, Ukraine, on February 26.
From Telegram
A man kneels in front of a Russian tank in Bakhmach, Ukraine, on February 26 as Ukrainian citizens attempted to stop the tank from moving forward.
The dramatic scene was captured on video, and CNN confirmed its authenticity. The moment drew comparisons to the iconic
"Tank Man" of Tiananmen Square.
Pierre Crom/Getty Images
People in Kyiv board a train heading to the west of the country on February 26. Kelly Clements, the United Nations Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees,
told CNN that more than 120,000 people had left Ukraine while 850,000 were internally displaced.
Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian service members look for and collect unexploded shells after fighting in Kyiv on February 26.
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Smoke and flames are seen near Kyiv on February 26.
Explosions were seen and heard in parts of the capital as Ukrainians battled to hold back advancing Russian troops.
Tyler Hicks/The New York Times/Redux
The body of a Russian soldier lies next to a Russian vehicle outside Kharkiv on February 25.
Mikhail Palinchak/AP
Newly married couple Yaryna Arieva and Sviatoslav Fursin pose for photo in Kyiv on February 25 after they joined the Territorial Defense Forces.
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Members of the Ukrainian National Guard take positions in central Kyiv on February 25.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
People walk past a residential building in Kyiv that was hit in an alleged Russian airstrike on February 25.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
The body of a school employee, who according to locals was killed in recent shelling, lies in the separatist-controlled town of Horlivka in Ukraine's Donetsk region on February 25.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Kyiv residents take shelter in an underground parking garage on February 25.
Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images
The body of a rocket remains in an apartment after shelling on the northern outskirts of Kharkiv on February 24.
Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
A wounded woman stands outside a hospital after an attack on the eastern Ukrainian town of Chuhuiv, outside of Kharkiv, on February 24.
Emilio Morenatti/AP
A boy plays with his tablet in a public basement used as a bomb shelter in Kyiv on February 24.
Christian Streib/CNN
Sviatoslav Fursin, left, and Yaryna Arieva kneel during
their wedding ceremony at the St. Michael's Cathedral in Kyiv on February 24. They had planned on getting married in May, but they rushed to tie the knot due to the attacks by Russian forces. "We maybe can die, and we just wanted to be together before all of that," Arieva said.
Vadim Ghirda/AP
Ukrainian service members sit atop armored vehicles driving in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region on February 24.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
People in Kyiv try to board a bus to travel west toward Poland on February 24.
Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Images
US President Joe Biden arrives in the East Room of the White House to
address the Russian invasion on February 24. "Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war. And now he and his country will bear the consequences," Biden said, laying out a set of measures that will "impose severe cost on the Russian economy, both immediately and over time."
Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
Smoke rises from a military airport in Chuhuiv on February 24.
Airports were also hit in Boryspil, Kharkiv, Ozerne, Kulbakino, Kramatorsk and Chornobaivka.
Marcus Yam/Los Angeles Times/Shutterstock
People seek shelter inside a subway station in Kharkiv on February 24.
From Telegram
Russian military vehicles are seen at the Chernobyl power plant near Pripyat, Ukraine, on February 24. Russian forces
seized control of the the plant, the site of the world's worst nuclear disaster.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
People wait after boarding a bus to leave Kyiv on February 24.
Ukrainian Presidency/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Ukrainian President Zelensky holds an emergency meeting in Kyiv on February 24.
In a video address, Zelensky announced that he was introducing martial law. He urged people to remain calm.
Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
Police officers inspect the remains of a missile that landed in Kyiv on February 24.
Ethan Swope/Bloomberg/Getty Images
A staff member of a Kyiv hotel talks on the phone on February 24.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
Smoke rises from an air defense base after an apparent Russian strike in Mariupol on February 24. A CNN team in Mariupol reported hearing
a barrage of artillery.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
People wait in line to buy train tickets at the central station in Kyiv on February 24.
Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
A long line of cars is seen
exiting Kyiv on February 24. Heavy traffic appeared to be heading west, away from where explosions were heard early in the morning.
Ukrainian President's Office
A photo provided by the Ukrainian President's office appears to show an explosion in Kyiv early on February 24.
Sergei Illnitsky/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
People in Moscow watch a televised address by Russian President Vladimir Putin as he
announces a military operation in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine on February 24. "Whoever tries to interfere with us, and even more so to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history," he said.
Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images
An emergency meeting of the UN Security Council is held in New York to discuss the crisis on February 23. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres told Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop "attacking Ukraine" and to give peace a chance.
Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
A convoy of Russian military vehicles is seen February 23 in the Rostov region of Russia, which runs along Ukraine's eastern border.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
Ukrainian soldiers talk in a shelter at the front line near Svitlodarsk, Ukraine, on February 23.
Tyler Hicks/The New York Times/Redux
Smoke rises from a damaged power plant in Shchastya that Ukrainian authorities say was hit by shelling on February 22.
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
A damaged house is worked on after shelling near the Ukrainian front-line city of Novoluhanske on February 22.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Mourners gather at a church in Kyiv on February 22 for the funeral of Ukrainian Army Capt. Anton Sydorov. The Ukrainian military said he was
killed by a shrapnel wound on February 19 after several rounds of artillery fire were directed at Ukrainian positions near Myronivske.
Christopher Occhicone/Bloomberg/Getty Images
A sign displays conversion rates at a currency exchange kiosk in Kyiv on February 22.
Global markets tumbled the day after Putin ordered troops into parts of eastern Ukraine.
The New York Times/Redux
Russian howitzers are loaded onto train cars near Taganrog, Russia, on February 22.
Sergey Ponomarev/The New York Times/Redux
People who left a separatist-held region in eastern Ukraine watch
an address by Putin from their hotel room in Taganrog, Russia, on February 21. Putin blasted Kyiv's growing security ties with the West, and in lengthy remarks about the history of the USSR and the formation of the Ukrainian Socialist Soviet Republic, he appeared to cast doubt on Ukraine's right to self-determination.
Alexei Nikolsky/Sputnik/Kremlin/Pool/AP
Putin signs decrees recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic in a ceremony in Moscow on February 21. Earlier in the day, the heads of the self-proclaimed pro-Russian republics requested the Kremlin leader recognize their independence and sovereignty. Members of Putin's Security Council supported the initiative in a meeting earlier in the day.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Protesters demanding economic sanctions against Russia stand outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kyiv on February 21. Only a small number of protesters showed up to demonstrate.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Activists hold a performance in front of the Russian embassy in Kyiv on February 21 in support of prisoners who were arrested in Crimea. They say the red doors are a symbol of the doors that were kicked in to search and arrest Crimean Tatars, a Muslim ethnic minority.
Aleksey Filippov/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian servicemen shop in the front-line town of Avdiivka, Ukraine, on February 21.
Ali Atmaca/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
People lay flowers at the Motherland Monument in Kyiv on February 21.
Emilio Morenatti/AP
A couple arrives at the city council to get married in Odesa on February 20. As Ukrainian authorities reported further ceasefire violations and top Western officials warned about an impending conflict, life went on in other parts of the country.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskiy, left, visits soldiers at a front-line position in Novoluhanske on February 19. Minutes after he left,
the position came under fire. No one was injured.
Andrey Borodulin/AFP/Getty Images
A woman rests in a car near a border checkpoint in Avilo-Uspenka, Russia, on February 19.
Vadim Ghirda/AP
A Ukrainian service member walks by a building on February 19 that was hit by mortar fire in the front-line village of Krymske, Ukraine.
Peter Kovalev/TASS/Getty Images
Fighter jets fly over Belarus during a joint military exercise the country held with Russia on February 19.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Ukrainian soldiers stand guard at a military command center in Novoluhanske on February 19.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
People sit on a bus in Donetsk on February 18 after they were ordered to evacuate to Russia by pro-Russian separatists.
Nikolai Trishin/TASS/Getty Images
The remains of a military vehicle are seen in a parking lot outside a government building following an explosion in Donetsk on February 18. Ukrainian and US officials said the vehicle explosion was
a staged attack designed to stoke tensions in eastern Ukraine.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
A memorial service and candlelight vigil is held at the St. Michael's Golden-Domed Monastery in Kyiv on February 18. They honored
those who died in 2014 while protesting against the government of President Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian leader who later fled the country.
Carlos Barria/Reuters
A kindergarten that officials say was
damaged by shelling is seen in Stanytsia Luhanska, Ukraine, on February 17. No lives were lost, but it was a stark reminder of the stakes for people living near the front lines that separate Ukrainian government forces from Russian-backed separatists.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Children play on old Soviet tanks in front of the Motherland Monument in Kyiv on February 16.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Ambassadors of European countries lay roses at the Wall of Remembrance in Kyiv on February 16. The wall contains the names and photographs of military members who have died since the conflict with Russian-backed separatists began in 2014.
Wojtek Radawanski/AFP/Getty Images
US troops walk on the tarmac at the Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in southeastern Poland on February 16. US paratroopers landed in Poland as part of a deployment of several thousand sent to bolster NATO's eastern flank in response to tensions with Russia.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
A 200-meter-long Ukrainian flag is unfolded at the Olympic Stadium in Kyiv on February 16 to mark a "Day of Unity," an impromptu celebration declared by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Timothy Fadek/Redux for CNN
Travelers wait in line to check in to their departing flights February 15 at the Boryspil International Airport outside Kyiv. US President Joe Biden
urged Americans in Ukraine to leave the country, warning that "things could go crazy quickly" in the region.
Brendan Hoffman/The New York Times/Redux
A location of Oschadbank, a state-owned bank, is seen in Kyiv on February 15. The websites of Oschadbank and PrivatBank, the country's two largest banks,
were hit by cyberattacks that day, as were the websites of Ukraine's defense ministry and army, according to Ukrainian government agencies.
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
A woman and child walk underneath a military monument in Senkivka, Ukraine, on February 14. It's on the outskirts of the Three Sisters border crossing between Ukraine, Russia and Belarus.
Vadim Ghirda/AP
Ukrainian service members talk at a front-line position in eastern Ukraine on February 14.
Emilio Morenatti/AP
Members of Ukraine's National Guard look out a window as they ride a bus through the capital of Kyiv on February 14.
Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies
Satellite images taken on February 13 by Maxar Technologies revealed that dozens of helicopters had appeared at a previously vacant airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea.
Svetlana Kisileva/Abaca/Sip/AP
Pro-Russian separatists observe the movement of Ukrainian troops from trenches in Ukraine's Donbas area on February 11.
Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
Ukrainian service members unpack Javelin anti-tank missiles that were delivered to Kyiv on February 10 as part of a US military support package for Ukraine.
Vadim Ghirda/AP
Ukrainian service members walk on an armored fighting vehicle during a training exercise in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region on February 10.
Putin was able to weather the unrest with his formidable and well-funded security apparatus, much as he was able to crack down on antiwar protests that broke out right after the February 24 invasion. And in the months that followed mobilization, Russia made some slow, grinding advances in Ukraine’s Donbas region, particularly around the embattled city of Bakhmut.
But Wagner’s methods are also a flashback to a bleak chapter of Soviet history. Prigozhin has recruited thousands of prisoners with the promise of amnesty or a pardon, a practice that mirrors Stalin’s use of penal battalions and convicts to take on desperate or suicidal missions in the toughest sectors of the front, using human-wave attacks to overwhelm enemy defenses, regardless of the human cost.
“He’s the first folk hero (in) many years,” Zygar said. “He’s a hero for the most ultraconservative – the most, I would say, fascist – part of Russian society, as long as we don’t have any liberal part in Russian society, because most of the leaders of that part of Russian society have left, he’s an obvious rival to President Putin.”
Recent speculation has centered on whether rivals within Russia’s power elite have been trying to clip Prigozhin’s wings. Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya recently offered a skeptical take on Prigozhin’s rise that factors in some of those considerations. In a recent article published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, she noted that Prigozhin has rivalries with Russia’s power ministries and doesn’t have much showing in polls.
“Is Prigozhin ready to challenge Putin?” she wrote in a recent piece. “While the answer is negative, there is one important ‘but.’ It is difficult to remain balanced and sane after going through bloody meat grinders and losing a significant part of one’s personnel. As long as Putin is relatively strong and able to maintain a balance between groups of influence, Prigozhin is safe. But the slightest easing could provoke Prigozhin to challenge power, even if not directly to Putin at first. War breeds monsters, whose recklessness and desperation can become a challenge to the state.”
Part of the fascination with Prigozhin has to do with the fact that Putin, until a year ago, enjoyed a secure monopoly on power. The authorities were well practiced in quashing street protests, and any meaningful political opposition had been effectively neutered. That’s fueled speculation – or perhaps wishful thinking – that the collapse of Putinism might be brought on by some fissure within the elite. The so-called siloviki (the hardcore authoritarians in Putin’s inner circle) remain publicly loyal, but further setbacks in Ukraine may create a potential scramble for power.
Against that backdrop, some Russians have taken refuge in a form of political apathy. CNN recently spoke to several Muscovites about how their lives have changed since last year, on condition that their surnames not be used over the risks of publicly criticizing the government.
“There have been a lot of changes (in Russia), but I can’t really make a difference,” said Ira, a 47-year-old who works for a business publication. “I just try to keep some internal balance. Maybe I’m too apolitical, but I don’t feel it (further mobilization) is going to happen.”
Ira said she felt acute anxiety in February and March of last year, immediately after the invasion. She had just bought an apartment and was worried that work might dry up and she wouldn’t be able to pay her mortgage.
“It got a lot worse in the spring,” she said. “Now it seems we’ve gotten used to a new reality. I started to meet and go out with girlfriends. I started to buy a lot more wine.”
The restaurants are now full, she said, but added: “The faces look completely different. The hipsters – you know what hipsters are? – there are less of them.”
Ira doesn’t have a son, so she does not have to worry about him being mobilized. But she did say that her 21-year-old daughter has started going out to kvartirniki – informal, word-of-mouth gatherings in private apartments, somewhat reminiscent of the underground performances held in the Soviet era.
Olya, a 51-year-old events organizer with two teenage children, said her family had opted for more domestic holidays. Europe is largely closed to direct flights from Russia, and opportunities to travel abroad are more limited.
“We started to travel around the country more,” she said.
Olya and her family travel with a group of friends, but some topics are off-limits in that circle.
“We know in our group what everyone thinks about it (the war) but we don’t talk about it, otherwise we’ll end up squabbling,” she said.
Life carries on, Olya said, even though there is a war on. “I can’t influence the situation,” she said. “My friends say, we do what we can, what’s possible. It doesn’t help to get depressed.”
Helping matters for the Russian government is the unexpected durability of parts of the Russian economy, despite heavy Western sanctions. The war has been costly for the government – the country’s Finance Ministry recently admitted it ran a higher-than-expected deficit in 2022, in large part due to a 30% increase in defense spending over the previous year – but the International Monetary Fund is projecting a small return to GDP growth for Russia in 2023 of 0.3%.
A 38-year-old entrepreneur named Georgy told CNN that from the perspective of his businesses, things appeared to be picking up.
“Those who adapted quickly reorganized, they are seeing growth,” he said. “In January we concluded an unusual number of deals, and most of our activity usually picks up in February.”
Georgy spoke to CNN while in a Moscow traffic snarl, evidence that life in the capital has resumed some of its normal rhythm.
“In terms of everyday life, practically nothing has changed,” he said, talking about the cutoff of Western imports. “If we’re talking parts for a (Mercedes Benz) G-Class, it might be trickier.”
Asked if his business was affected by the exodus of Russians since the beginning of the war, Georgy said no.
“Those I know personally who left? Probably about five people,” he said. “I have a patriotic social circle.”
Georgy said he was skeptical of state media, saying he looked for other sources of information. And he acknowledged that he could theoretically be called up in another wave of mobilization.
“My attitude is somewhat philosophical,” he said. “Of course, I’d prefer not to.”
Before last February, Russia’s budding middle class could benefit from Putin’s social contract: Stay out of politics, and you’ll enjoy life in a European-style Moscow or St. Petersburg. Now that the bargain is out the window. Russia is further than ever from Europe, and it remains to be seen if support for an open-ended war can be sustained.