(CNN) Paul Ryan wants to make one thing crystal clear: He is for any Republican not named Donald Trump in 2024.
"That new swing voter in American politics is the suburban voter, and it's really clear the suburban voter doesn't like Trump, but they like Republicans," the former House speaker said during a recent appearance on Fox Business. "So I think anybody not named Trump, I think is so much more likely to win the White House for us."
Which is blunt!
Ryan's assessment comes even as Trump appears not only likely to run again, but is making preparations for what a third bid for president would look like.
As CNN's Gabby Orr reported on Tuesday, Trump appears to be "accelerating his plans for another presidential campaign," going as far as to weigh where the campaign would be based (Florida and the Washington, DC, area are the two leading options) and who might help lead the effort (longtime GOP operative Chris LaCivita is seen as one possibility).
Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican who left office in 2019 amid the hostile takeover of the Republican Party by Trump, has not been shy about offering his skepticism about the former President running again for the White House.
"Whether he runs or not, I don't really know if it matters," Ryan said earlier this month. "He's not going to be the nominee, I don't think."
It's not clear what Ryan is actually basing his assessment of Trump's chances on. Trump remains the dominant figure within the GOP and, if anything, has strengthened his grip on the GOP during the 2022 primary season -- with many of his endorsed candidates winning key contests for Senate and governor.
In 2016, Trump actually beat Hillary Clinton among suburban voters 50% to 45%, according to exit polls. Four years later, Joe Biden narrowly beat Trump in the suburbs 50% to 48%. In the 2018 midterm election, where Republicans were swamped in the House, the parties each took 49% of the vote among suburban voters.
So, yes, Trump did lose the suburbs in 2020. But he wasn't exactly routed there.
Ryan's critique of Trump, honestly, reads like a bit of wish-casting. Ryan was clearly not a fan of Trump's when the two were in office together. And the intervening several years has not led to a detente.
"As a Republican, having Paul Ryan on your side almost guarantees a loss, for both you, the Party, and America itself," Trump wrote in a statement last year. (He was responding to a speech Ryan gave in which the former House Speaker said that "if the conservative cause depends on the populist appeal of one personality, or on second-rate imitations, then we're not going anywhere.")
While Trump's candidacy is treated as a foregone conclusion by many in his orbit, what the rest of the 2024 Republican field might look is far less certain. As Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, himself a potential candidate, said recently: "The whole world will change depending on what Donald Trump decides. That's true for every candidate. That's true of every potential candidate."
The likes of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo all seem to be moving forward with plans to run for the GOP nomination as well, but it's not yet obvious whether those plans will change if Trump officially enters the race.
What we do know is that Trump would start the race -- against anyone in the GOP field -- as a clear favorite for the nomination. And while favorites do lose, the odds are, at least at the moment, in Trump's favor.