(CNN) On Tuesday night, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was forced into a May Republican primary runoff with George P. Bush, a victory for the Bush family in their long-running feud with former President Donald Trump.
Paxton had been endorsed in the race by Trump, who called the embattled attorney general "strong on Crime, Border Security, the Second Amendment, Election Integrity and, above all, our Constitution."
Bush, on the other hand, is the son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and a scion of the most famous family in establishment Republican politics. His father and Trump feuded regularly during the course of the 2016 campaign. Neither Jeb Bush nor his brother, former President George W. Bush, voted for Trump in 2016. (George W. Bush also revealed he didn't vote for Trump in 2020.) Their late mother, Barbara Bush, said of Trump: "He sort of makes faces and says insulting things."
"I guess what I'd say is, clearly, to the establishment: They got what they wanted," Paxton said in a speech to supporters late Tuesday. "They got me in a runoff."
With an estimated 96% of the vote in, Paxton stood at 43%, while George P. Bush was at 23%. The rest of the vote was split among two other primary challengers. Paxton and Bush will face off again on May 24.
Now, while it's fascinating to see the race -- and the results -- as a proxy war between the old face of the Republican Party (the Bushes) and its new face (Trump), the reality is slightly more nuanced.
First, Paxton finds himself in significant legal jeopardy. In 2015, shortly after being elected as Texas attorney general, Paxton was indicted on charges of securities fraud. He pleaded not guilty and the trial continues to be delayed amid legal wrangling on both sides. Then, in October 2020, seven Paxton aides accused him of bribery and abuse of office -- charges that Paxton denied. (The FBI is reportedly looking into the allegations.)
Bush, who currently serves as Texas Land Commissioner, made Paxton's legal problems a key part of his case against the incumbent. In a speech on Tuesday night, he argued that nominating Paxton would cost Republicans the office in the fall. "That's what's at stake in this race," he said, according to the Texas Tribune. "That's what this campaign is about. It's not about one individual. It's about preserving conservative values in our state."
Second, Bush isn't exactly a chip off the old block. While his father called Trump "unhinged" during the 2016 primary campaign, the younger Bush has been much more willing to bend the knee to the former President.
In the days before he formally entered the attorney race in the summer of 2021, George P. Bush tweeted a picture of himself on a cell phone with this caption: "Great to speak with President Trump to discuss the future of Texas and how we are keeping up the fight to put America first. I appreciate the words of encouragement and support."
At the announcement itself, Bush supporters were handing out koozies that featured a drawing of him and Trump with a 2019 quote from the former President that read: "This is the only Bush that likes me. This is the Bush that got it right. I like him." (George P. Bush endorsed Trump in the 2020 race, calling him "the only thing standing between America and socialism.")
So, like I said, it's not totally clear-cut that Paxton's failure to avoid a runoff is purely a referendum on the Bush family vs. Trump dynamic. But whether George P. Bush has said nice things about Trump in the past (and vice-versa), it is unmistakably true that he is the son of Jeb Bush and that Trump weighed in for Paxton early and strongly in the primary fight.
Which means this is something of a proxy fight between the two sides. And it's only going to get more intense over the next two and a half months.