Editor's Note: (Samantha Vinograd is a CNN National Security Analyst. She served on President Obama's National Security Council from 2009-2013 and at the Treasury Department under President Bush. Follow her @sam_vinograd. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion articles on CNN.)
(CNN) Every week, I offer a glimpse of the kind of intelligence assessments that are likely to come across the desk of the President of the United States. Modeled on the President's Daily Briefing, or PDB, which the director of national intelligence prepares for the President almost daily, my Presidential Weekly Briefing focuses on the topics and issues the President needs to know to make informed decisions.
Here's this week's briefing:
We've come a long way since your fist-bumping with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the NATO summit last month. After you announced higher tariffs against Turkish steel and aluminum, viewed as a punishment for Erdogan's refusal to release American pastor Andrew Brunson, Erdogan came out swinging against you and your policies. We are sharing our assessment on how Erdogan will likely respond to your actions and his own domestic pressures.
If history is any guide, we should expect Putin to retaliate against your latest round of sanctions, and he's probably planning how he'll hit you back. He's met your punitive actions against Russia in a reciprocal fashion in the past, and this time will be no different. When you expelled Russian diplomats from the United States and closed a Russian consulate, he did the same in return. When we required Russian media outlets to register as foreign agents, he required nine US backed media outlets to do the same in Russia. It's a tit-for-tat relationship.
Your new sanctions on certain American exports to Russia -- exports that could have military uses -- already sent the Russian ruble to a two-year low, and we expect a Russian response targeting Russian exports to the United States. But Putin is also under economic pressure and won't want to cut off his nose to spite his face -- meaning he'll sanction something that won't cost Russian firms a lot of money. One Russian lawmaker said Putin may stop the export of national security items like RD-180 rocket engines, which we use to launch government satellites into space.
But he may wait to see if you move ahead with the second stage of these sanctions, which kick in 90 days from now -- assuming Russia doesn't satisfy the requirements forestalling this second round of sanctions, which we think it is unlikely to do. The second tranche could even curb Aeroflot -- Russia's state airline -- flights to the United States. If Aeroflot is banned, we could also see Putin ban specific flights by American carriers into Russia.
We assess that North Korea is going to keep taking a divide and conquer approach with you. They have been trying to separate Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's "gangster-like" approach from your "intentions" for weeks, despite knowing that Pompeo, Ambassador Nikki Haley, and national security adviser John Bolton's actions are likely official US government policy statements.
Adding to this trend, last week North Korea issued another statement, claiming that "[S]ome high-level officials within the US administration are making baseless allegations against us and making desperate attempts at intensifying the international sanctions and pressure," which they say is "going against the intention of President Trump."
In other words, Kim is trying to pit you against your team and make a not so subtle power play; he is messaging to the world that he knows your intentions better than your own team does. He is likely doing this because he's upset that he hasn't gotten any real sanctions relief from you despite the fact that he doesn't deserve it -- we're still waiting for North Korea to take significant steps to denuclearize.
Kim probably thinks this divide and conquer strategy works. Putin has done it with palpable success. He has tried to distance you from your departments and agencies by not so subtly criticizing the FBI's counterintelligence investigation and Department of Justice indictments against Russians, for example, while flattering you and meeting with you one-on-one in Helsinki. Kim's probably following Putin's divisive lead.