Editor's Note: (Samantha Vinograd is a CNN National Security Analyst. She served on President Obama's National Security Council from 2009-2013 and at the Treasury Department under President Bush. Follow her @sam_vinograd. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. This commentary has been updated to reflect the news.)
(CNN) Every week, I offer a glimpse of the kind of intelligence assessments that are likely to come across the desk of the President of the United States.
Modeled on the President's Daily Briefing, or PDB, which the director of national intelligence prepares for President Trump almost daily, my Presidential Weekly Briefing focuses on the topics and issues that Trump needs to know about to make informed decisions.
Here's this week's briefing:
Mr. President, you will be under pressure from all sides to proceed with a summit with Kim Jong Un.
Mr. President, countries are reacting unanimously against your decision to launch an investigation into whether imports of vehicles "threaten to impair" US national security. They are likely to retaliate if this investigation results in penalties similar to the tariffs you imposed on steel and aluminum imports.
This investigation does further isolate us from our allies who represent a significant amount of our automobile trade, including NAFTA partners Mexico and Canada (Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the investigation was based on flimsy logic and was linked to your NAFTA renegotiation strategy), along with Japan, Germany and South Korea. South Korean officials already said they would "have to respond" to any US tariffs, and after the previous round of steel and aluminum tariffs, the EU almost immediately threatened retaliatory trade measures. If this proceeds, we can expect a similar reaction.
Allies, including the EU and Japan, said the move would be against World Trade Organization rules, and a "rival power" -- China -- took your announcement as an opportunity to (hypocritically) urge respect for their multilateral trading system (China is not exactly a poster child for respecting the WTO or international rules). So we can expect our allies and our economic competitors to be aligned (and potentially coordinating) on a response to the investigation, including taking us to the WTO or, following our lead, using "national security" concerns to close their own borders to our exports.
China is ramping up its campaign against Taiwan. We assess that as President Xi feels even stronger at home, in the region, and on the global stage, he will use everything in his tool kit against Taiwan. As part of its international pressure campaign against Taiwan, China has steadily destroyed Taiwan's diplomatic relationships.
Last week, Burkina Faso became the latest country to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan, which now has only 17 diplomatic relationships left. China is also leveraging its economic clout and pressuring companies like Gap Inc. and Delta Air Lines to avoid recognizing Taiwan as its own country or risk losing business in China. China knows that the United States is committed to Taiwan's defense, by law, so it will likely continue to undermine Taiwan's security and diplomatic standing and see how far they can push the envelope before provoking any kind of substantive response from you.
Taliban attacks continued there last week and we anticipate a further uptick in violence, particularly after the Taliban issued a warning that they're planning attacks on government, police and intelligence facilities in Kabul and asked civilians to stay away. Despite our public statements last year that some Taliban groups expressed an interest in talking, we've seen no meaningful indication recently that the Taliban is open to substantive negotiations. We have referenced the Taliban as a "weakened enemy" recently while continuing operations against them, but they maintain the ability to launch high-profile attacks -- including in the increasing swathes of territory controlled by insurgents.