Washington(CNN) Last week was all exuberant fanfare and rollouts. Monday, the real work begins.
The ways and means committee will begin marking up the GOP tax bill at noon ET. This will be a long, arduous process expected to last until Thursday. Democrats will ensure really difficult votes and a few fireworks.
But the most important happenings will be behind the scenes, as Republicans continue to negotiate/tweak/revise a proposal scheduled to hit the House floor next week.
What Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady introduces as the chair's substitute amendment. That will contain the major changes of the day -- and sources say they could, indeed, be major. There's a good chance this happens multiple days this week, as agreed upon changes are ready to be incorporated.
The markup will start with opening statements; then the legislative work will begin. Of note here: Republicans are not expected to be firing out amendments -- this is a committee that is run very tightly by Brady and, to some extent, leadership.
Don't be surprised if the only GOP amendments throughout the week are offered by Brady, with rank-and-file GOP committee members angling behind closed doors to get their preferred provisions included in whatever Brady proposes.
Democrats are under no such restrictions however, and the floor is wide open for Rep. Richard Neal of Massachusetts, the panel's top Democrat, and his colleagues to try and create as many political problems as possible. Rarely do these amendments threaten to split off Republicans, but they will be taking no shortage of painful votes, no doubt about it. The goal for Brady is to have most of this effort throughout the week take place during daylight hours, but Monday is likely to go well into the evening.
The Joint Committee on Taxation released its analysis of the GOP plan on Friday. On net, the cuts on the individual side are very real in the first few years of the plan. But after that? Problems arise. As inflation indexing kicks in and the $300 family credit expires, the cuts lean heavily toward to the wealthy (and, of course, corporations due to the permanence of those provisions.) According to JCT, that would mean an actual tax increase for many lower income and upper middle class taxpayers starting in 2023.
Full analysis here, but note that changes have already been made and more are coming.
The plan is heavily weighted toward corporate cuts (around $1 trillion) over individual cuts (in the neighborhood of $220 billion) by design. The current corporate code is considered a significant drawback for US business and Republicans point to corporate benefits as directly affecting individual wages.
The GOP's ability to sell the plan as an entire package -- with economic growth that will result in direct wage increases -- as opposed to just individual cuts, something that remains a big question -- will be crucial to whether or not this can actually move forward.
Some are well worn (the repeal of the deduction for state and local taxes, the home mortgage deduction), some are really complex (passthroughs) and some are just starting to bubble (repeal of the adoption credit), but regardless, keep a close eye on these.
There will be others that crop up. Just wait.
In the past few days, Speaker Paul Ryan and Brady have left the door open to including a repeal of Obamacare's individual mandate in the bill.
Why? Revenue.
Due to decreased government insurance subsidies and a reduction in those who would sign up for Medicaid, the repeal would reduce federal deficits by hundreds of billions of dollars. (The Congressional Budget Office also estimates 15 million fewer would have health insurance).
Brady, at the Politico event, said his committee has asked CBO for an updated savings estimate, which is expected as soon as Monday. That's a sign that this is something that has life, and it certainly is popular among some of the rank-and-file members (not to mention Sen. Tom Cotton in the Senate, who has been touting this idea publicly and privately for weeks).
But to make this abundantly clear: this is not something GOP leaders want to do.
Mixing health care policy and tax policy is a recipe for disaster -- like epic disaster. But revenue raisers are desperately needed right now, and the President certainly has made his position known.
The ways and means committee announced it would change how it calculates inflation in the bill for adjustments in the tax code, starting in 2018.
The bill now shifts the measure to chained consumer price index, from regular consumer price index in 2018 instead of 2023, as originally drafted.
Why? Money. It adds roughly $90 billion in revenue to the proposal. But it also cuts down on the overall cuts on the individual side. Again, the tradeoffs. They ain't easy.
The Senate finance committee is expected to release its bill later this week. While it will hit the similar benchmarks laid out in the nine-page framework, it will diverge in several ways in terms of how it gets there, according to sources involved in the process.
CNN's Jeanne Sahadi's great breakdown of the winners and losers (so far) in the House GOP bill.
And here's Jeanne on what's actually in this bad boy on the individual side. And the corporate side.
Kathryn Vassel on what is undoubtedly a huge flash point: mortgages.
Julie Rovner on something that will absolutely rear its head in the days ahead: the scrapping of the medical expense deduction.
Watch this space: the scrapping of the student loan interest deduction, via CNN's Katie Lobosco.
But unborn children will now have a chance to have college savings accounts.
The looming death of the alimony tax break, via CNN's Jackie Wattles.
Lauren Fox on Paul Ryan's baby -- and all that rests on his ability to get this across the finish line.