Washington(CNN) Two presidential front-runners who both call New York home will try to put some distance between themselves and their opponents Tuesday and build momentum heading into the final contests.
Donald Trump is looking for a big enough win to lock Ted Cruz and John Kasich out of New York's 95 delegates. And Hillary Clinton will try to show Bernie Sanders that besting her in coastal states is a tall order.
Here are five things to watch Tuesday:
Does Trump regain his footing?
Weeks of negative headlines, staff changes and the slow bleed of delegates to Cruz have knocked Trump off his feet, and made a contested Republican convention look more likely.
But in New York, the real estate mogul is in his element.
Polls show him poised to dust Cruz and Kasich in the state's primary, giving him the opportunity, in an election-night event set to take place at Trump Tower, to reassert his standing as the Republican front-runner.
CNN's 2016 Delegate Tracker
Trump is leading by double digits in most polls of the state, but for all his claims in every campaign speech that America will get sick and tired of all the "winning" it'll do with him as president, Trump is now a candidate in need of a big win.
The year Donald Trump took politics by storm
What started out as the summer of Trump soon turned into the autumn of Trump, and as 2015 comes to an end, Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican field of presidential candidates.
An image of Trump is seen on the Las Vegas Strip on December 14. Las Vegas was hosting a CNN presidential debate.
Trump pretends to sleep December 7 as he references fellow candidate Jeb Bush at a Pearl Harbor Day Rally in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. It was here that Trump read a press release calling for a "complete and total shutdown of Muslims entering the United States" in light of the San Bernardino terror attacks.
A group of Muslim-Americans rally in front of New York's Trump Tower on December 20 to protest Trump's proposal to ban Muslims.
British newspapers showcase reactions to Trump's proposal to ban Muslims from entering the United States. An online petition to ban Trump from entering Britain garnered
more than 300,000 signatures.
Trump was in the running for Time magazine's Person of the Year and was not pleased when German Chancellor Angela Merkel was selected instead. Alongside a profile on Trump, the publication published a behind-the-scenes video of a photo shoot from August. The video featured blooper-reel moments with Trump's co-star of the shoot, a bald eagle named Uncle Sam. The eagle ruffles its feathers, startling Trump.
Trump flips his belt buckle while slamming fellow Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson during
a 95-minute tirade on November 12. Trump mocked Carson's story that as a boy, he once tried but failed to stab someone only to have the knife broken by a belt buckle. "So I have a belt: Somebody hits me with a belt, it's going in because the belt moves this way. It moves this way, it moves that way," Trump told the crowd in Fort Dodge, Iowa.
Trump appears in a parody of Drake's "Hotline Bling" video while hosting "Saturday Night Live" on November 7. The episode
brought in an average of 9.3 million viewers -- the show's biggest audience in years.
Members of Latino organizations march from the Trump Tower to NBC studios in New York to protest Trump's "Saturday Night Live" appearance on November 7.
A Trump supporter stands across the street from the Latino protest in New York on November 7.
A man holds a copy of Trump's newest book, "Crippled America: How to Make America Great Again," while he waits to have it signed by Trump outside Trump Tower in New York on November 3.
Trump invites Colombian-born super fan Myriam Witcher on the stage during a campaign rally in Las Vegas on October 8. "I am Hispanic and I vote for Mr. Trump. We vote for Mr. Trump!" Witcher exclaimed.
Trump speaks during the campaign rally in Las Vegas on October 8. During the rally, Trump said people were giving him credit for helping force House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy to bow out of the race for Speaker of the House.
Trump is greeted on stage by U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a fellow Republican presidential candidate, before speaking at a Washington rally organized by the Tea Party Patriots on September 9.
Trump asks an audience member to inspect his hair to verify it's real during an event in Greenville, South Carolina, on August 27.
Trump takes a question from Univision and Fusion anchor Jorge Ramos during a press conference at the Grand River Center in Dubuque, Iowa, on August 25. Earlier, Trump had Ramos
removed from the room after the two squabbled over Trump's immigration stance. "Sit down. Sit down. Sit down," Trump said, adding, "Go back to Univision."
Laci Lamb, 6, declares Trump "awesome" and cheers at a Trump rally in Mobile, Alabama, on August 21. Her mother, Annie, made her outfit. "He's the best candidate we've had in a long time," Annie Lamb said.
Trump greets fans after the Mobile rally, where more than 30,000 supporters from deep-red Alabama gathered in a football stadium.
Trump speaks with reporters after arriving at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on August 15. Trump gave children rides on his helicopter.
Trump eats a pork chop on a stick and gives a thumbs-up sign to fairgoers while campaigning at the Iowa State Fair on August 15.
Trump fields a question during the first Republican presidential debate, which was held August 6 in Cleveland. Following the debate, Trump launched what would become an ongoing feud with Fox News host and debate moderator Megyn Kelly,
tweeting and retweeting attacks against Kelly into the early hours of the morning.
Trump takes a break from the campaign trail and visits his golf course Turnberry in Ayr, Scotland, with his daughter Ivanka on July 30.
Trump talks to the media along the U.S.-Mexico border during a trip to Laredo, Texas, on July 23. This is where
Trump first premiered his "Make America Great Again" hat.
Trump gives out U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham's private cell phone number at a rally in Graham's home state of South Carolina on July 22. He urged attendees to "give it a shot" and call it. The two presidential candidates engaged in a feud in which Graham called Trump a "jackass" and Trump called Graham "a total lightweight."
A Trump piñata is set up inside Lorena Robletto's shop in downtown Los Angeles. Piñatas in Trump's image
became hot sellers following outrage and anger over his rhetoric about Mexican immigrants.
Trump poses with his family after he
announced his candidacy June 16 at Trump Tower in New York. Pictured with Trump, from left to right, are Trump's son Eric Trump, daughter in-law Lara Yunaska Trump, son Barron Trump, wife Melania Trump, daughter-in-law Vanessa Haydon Trump, granddaughter Kai Madison, son Donald Trump Jr., grandson Donald John Trump III, and daughter Ivanka Trump. Trump called for erecting a massive wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and said Mexican immigrations are 'bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people."
The Texas senator has proven an ability to out-organize Trump at recent state conventions, where he's picked up key victories that could come in handy if the Republican convention goes to multiple ballots in July. Kasich, meanwhile, poses a pesky threat among moderates.
As Trump reshapes his staff for complicated state-by-state delegate selection battles, he'd get a shot of momentum -- and a big pile of delegates -- by easily clearing the 50% hurdle.
The delegate battle
"No New Yorker can vote for Ted Cruz," Trump declared at his rally in Buffalo on Monday night -- or Kasich, for that matter, given the Ohio governor's vote in Congress for the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Donald Trump: Ted Cruz 'has hatred for New York'
But some New Yorkers might -- and it could cost Trump delegates.
The Empire State has 95 delegates, but only 14 of them are awarded at the statewide level. If he breaks the 50% mark, Trump would sweep those.
The other 81 are divvied up three apiece among each of the state's congressional districts. In some areas, Trump is sure to crack 50% and win all three -- but elsewhere, Cruz and Kasich could hold Trump under that mark and limit his delegate edge, or even best him and claim more delegates.
NYC to Donald Trump: He's not one of us
Each district will be closely watched. With Trump's path to 1,237 increasingly narrow and Cruz and Kasich angling to pick off scores of those delegates on the second ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland if Trump doesn't reach that number, every delegate is crucial.
Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware are on deck for next week -- and the campaigns will be studying the results in New York's moderate suburbs and elsewhere to see if there are similar areas where more delegates could be picked off in the contests to come.
Can Clinton score a big margin?
Clinton won election twice from New York to the Senate. She defeated Barack Obama in New York in 2008. And on Tuesday, she'll try to put the Democratic nomination out of Sanders' reach by running up a big margin of victory.
"I am hoping to do really well tomorrow. I am hoping to wrap up the Democratic nomination," Clinton said during a visit to an LGBT phone bank on her behalf on Monday, to raucous applause and chants of "Hillary, Hillary."
She was quick to hedge, saying: "But, but, but -- I am not taking anything for granted. I have to quickly add that before anyone has the wrong impression."
Still, a big win would give Clinton's campaign more ammunition to argue that Sanders has no plausible path to the lead in pledged delegates, or even the popular vote.
6 Takeaways: Democrats tangle at New York debate
For Sanders, the hope is that New York will follow the national Democratic polls, which have shown the Vermont senator increasingly close to Clinton -- tying or surpassing her in some cases.
But the national polls, at this stage, might not mean much. The majority of the Democratic electorate has already voted, and many of the states left on the calendar have heavy minority populations that tend to benefit Clinton.
Opinion: Bernie Sanders is this year's biggest story
A win in New York, though, would give Sanders a way to shake up the psychology of the race -- significantly strengthening his claim that he can still win and potentially tipping Democrats who are still on the fence into his camp, much like challenger winning undecided voters at the late stages of a general election against an incumbent.
Fixing the problem spots
There are two fundamental questions in the Democratic race: Can Clinton eliminate Sanders' massive advantage among young voters? And can Sanders minimize Clinton's huge lead among minorities?
Opinion: Bernie is cool, Hillary is square
If the answer to either of those questions is "yes," it would mark a significant shift in the race.
The exit polls will reveal whether anything has changed. If it hasn't, there's no real reason to expect the Democratic race overall to be shaken up.
Sanders spent much of his time campaigning in Brooklyn, making it a good spot to watch for signs of a surge that he'd hope to carry into places like Maryland and, later, California.
Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders
US Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks at a campaign rally in Chicago in March 2019. Sanders, an independent from Vermont, is the longest-serving independent in the history of Congress.
Sanders, right, leads a sit-in organized by the Congress of Racial Equality in 1962. The demonstration was staged to oppose housing segregation at the University of Chicago. It was Chicago's first civil rights sit-in.
Sanders takes the oath of office to become the mayor of Burlington, Vermont, in 1981. He ran as an independent and won the race by 10 votes.
Sanders, right, tosses a baseball before a minor-league game in Vermont in 1984. US Sen. Patrick Leahy, center, was also on hand.
In 1987, Sanders and a group of Vermont musicians recorded a spoken-word folk album. "We Shall Overcome" was first released as a cassette that sold about 600 copies. When Sanders entered the US presidential race in 2015,
the album surged in online sales. But at a CNN town hall, Sanders said, "It's the worst album ever recorded."
Sanders reads mail at his campaign office in Burlington in 1990. He was running for the US House of Representatives after an unsuccessful bid in 1988.
In 1990, Sanders defeated US Rep. Peter Smith in the race for Vermont's lone House seat. He won by 16 percentage points.
Sanders sits next to President Bill Clinton in 1993 before the Congressional Progressive Caucus held a meeting at the White House. Sanders co-founded the caucus in 1991 and served as its first chairman.
Barack Obama, then a US senator, endorses Sanders' Senate bid at a rally in Burlington in 2006.
Sanders takes part in a swearing-in ceremony at the US Capitol in January 2007. He won his Senate seat with 65% of the vote.
Sanders chats with Dr. John Matthew, director of The Health Center in Plainfield, Vermont, in May 2007. Sanders was in Plainfield to celebrate a new source of federal funding for The Health Center.
Sanders speaks to reporters in 2010 about the Obama administration's push to extend Bush-era tax cuts. Three days later, Sanders held a filibuster against the reinstatement of the tax cuts. His speech, which lasted more than eight hours, was published in book form in 2011. It is called "The Speech: A Historic Filibuster on Corporate Greed and the Decline of Our Middle Class."
Sanders and US Rep. Jeff Miller, chairman of the House Committee on Veterans' Affairs, walk to a news conference on Capitol Hill in 2014. Sanders was chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs.
In March 2015, Sanders speaks in front of letters and petitions asking Congress to reject proposed cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
In July 2015, two months after announcing he would be seeking the Democratic Party's nomination for President, Sanders
spoke to nearly 10,000 supporters in Madison, Wisconsin. "Tonight we have made a little bit of history," he said. "You may know that some 25 candidates are running for President of the United States, but tonight we have more people at a meeting for a candidate for President of the United States than any other candidate has."
Seconds after Sanders took the stage for a campaign rally in August 2015, a dozen protesters from Seattle's Black Lives Matter chapter
jumped barricades and grabbed the microphone from the senator. Holding a banner that said "Smash Racism," two of the protesters -- Marissa Johnson, left, and Mara Jacqueline Willaford -- began to address the crowd.
Sanders shakes hands with Hillary Clinton at a Democratic debate in Las Vegas in October 2015. The hand shake came after Sanders' take on
the Clinton email scandal. "Let me say something that may not be great politics, but the secretary is right -- and that is that the American people are sick and tired of hearing about the damn emails," Sanders said. "Enough of the emails, let's talk about the real issues facing the United States of America."
Sanders embraces Remaz Abdelgader, a Muslim student, during an October 2015 event at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. Asked what he would do about Islamophobia in the United States, Sanders said he was determined to fight racism and "build a nation in which we all stand together as one people."
Sanders waves while walking in a Veterans Day parade in Lebanon, New Hampshire, in November 2015.
Sanders sits with rapper and activist Killer Mike at the Busy Bee Cafe in Atlanta in November 2015. That evening, Killer Mike
introduced Sanders at a campaign event in the city. "I'm talking about a revolutionary," the rapper told supporters. "In my heart of hearts, I truly believe that Sen. Bernie Sanders is the right man to lead this country."
Sanders speaks at a campaign rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan, in March 2016. He
won the state's primary the next day, an upset that delivered a sharp blow to Clinton's hopes of quickly securing the nomination.
Sanders speaks at a campaign event in New York's Washington Square Park in April 2016.
Sanders speaks at a rally in Santa Monica, California, in June 2016. He pledged to stay in the Democratic race even though Clinton secured the delegates she needed to become the presumptive nominee.
Sanders
endorses Clinton at a rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, in July 2016.
Sanders
addresses delegates on the first day of the Democratic National Convention in July 2016.
Sanders thanks supporters after winning re-election to the Senate in November 2018.
Sanders looks at his notes as he watches President Trump deliver the State of the Union address in February 2019. That month, Sanders announced that he would be running for president again.
Sanders hugs a young supporter during a campaign rally in Los Angeles in March 2019.
Sanders addresses the audience at a CNN town hall in Washington in April 2019.
Sanders speaks next to former Vice President Joe Biden at the first Democratic debates in June 2019.
Sanders raises his fist as he holds a rally in Santa Monica, California, in July 2019.
Sanders grabs the hand of US Sen. Elizabeth Warren during the Democratic debates in Detroit in July 2019.
Sanders campaigns at the University of New Hampshire in September 2019. A few days later,
he took himself off the campaign trail after doctors treated a blockage in one of his arteries. Sanders suffered a heart attack, his campaign confirmed.
US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduces Sanders at a New York rally after endorsing him for president in October 2019.
In a
tense and dramatic exchange moments after a Democratic debate, Warren accused Sanders of calling her a liar on national television. Sanders responded that it was Warren who called him a liar. Earlier in the debate, the two disagreed on whether Sanders told Warren, during a private dinner in 2018, that he didn't believe a woman could win the presidency.
Sanders laughs during a primary-night rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, in February 2020. Sanders won
the primary, just as he did in 2016.
A triumphant Sanders raises his fist in San Antonio after he was projected to win
the Nevada caucuses.
Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden talk before a Democratic debate in Charleston, South Carolina, in February 2020.
Sanders addresses supporters during a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, in March 2020.
Sanders speaks to reporters in Burlington, Vermont, a day after
Super Tuesday II. Sanders said it "was not a good night for our campaign from a delegate point of view" but that he looked forward to staying in the race and taking on Joe Biden in an upcoming debate.
Biden greets Sanders with an elbow bump before the start of a debate in Washington in March 2020. They went with an elbow bump instead of a handshake because of the coronavirus pandemic.
One factor that could significantly hamper Sanders: New York is a closed primary, which means only registered Democrats can participate -- blocking him from bringing in the infusion of independents that are often critical to his victories.
American democracy? Primary rules test the idea
Sanders said on CNN's "New Day" on Monday that he'll win if voter turnout is "very high" -- but he acknowledged that, with a closed primary and Clinton's edge among loyal Democrats, "we're kind of spotting Secretary Clinton a whole lot in that regard."
Hometown heroes
One unique feature of New York's primary: Three of the remaining five presidential candidates have lived in the state -- and they're fond of reminding voters of it.
It'll make for interesting election-night viewing to see whether each wins those areas.
New York primary matters for first time in decades
Will Sanders run up a big margin in Brooklyn, where he grew up?
Does Clinton get some distance in her adopted residence of Chappaqua, and other suburbs like it?
And how will Trump perform in Queens, where the brash Manhattan/Floridian was raised?