(CNN) U.S. intelligence satellites have spotted signs that North Korea may be preparing for an unprecedented launch of a mobile ballistic missile which could potentially hit portions of the U.S., CNN has learned.
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Two U.S. officials told CNN that if the regime proceeds with a launch, the latest assessments are the most likely scenario is the launch of the so-called Musudan missile, which the U.S. believes could potentially hit Guam and perhaps Shemya Island in the outer reaches of Alaska's Aleutian chain.
However, officials are strongly saying there are two other scenarios that are possible: North Korea could launch either its Kn-08 or Kn-14 mobile ballistic missiles which would have a longer range and could potentially hit the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The Kn-14 is thought to be a more precise version of the Kn-08, and it is believed the regime showed it for the first time at a military parade in 2015, officials say.
U.S., other nations condemn North Korean launch of long-range rocket
But U.S. officials also caution the regime could still decide to do nothing. North Korea is well aware U.S. spy satellites keep constant watch and the moves could be part of a deception effort to persuade the U.S. the North is about to take action.
If the North Koreans proceed, it would be the first time North Korea has launched a longer range ballistic missile from a mobile launcher and the first time any of these three missiles have flown.
South Korea's military is closely monitoring for the possibility of a fifth nuclear test by North Korea, according to a South Korean military official.
The official told CNN the military has been monitoring it since March 15, when North Korean leader Kim Jong Un gave orders to test a nuclear warhead and a ballistic rocket capable of launching a nuclear warhead. The official said this includes the Musadan missile, the Kn-08 and others that are said to be capable of reaching parts of the U.S.
North Korea launches rocket
The Kwangmyongsong carrier rocket blasted off from the Sohae launch facility at 9 a.m Sunday (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday), entering orbit nine minutes and 46 seconds after liftoff, North Korea's state news agency KCNA reported.
A state TV newsreader said the operation had been personally ordered and directed by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
State media reported that more satellite launches were planned.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called the launch "deeply deplorable" and in violation of Security Council resolutions "despite the united plea of the international community against such an act.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un looked on as the rocket blasted off.
State media captures a moment on the rocket at lift off.
The United States, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, Britain and France, as well as the European Union and NATO, were swift to condemn the action.
An official photograph shows the control room.
It's not clear if the missiles would work and how precise the guidance systems might be, but the estimated ranges of these missiles cause growing concern. Shemya Island, for example, houses an early warning radar installation that monitors space and missile activities.
If there is a launch, it's not clear if the missiles would carry any kind of simulated warhead.
But if the North were, for the first time, to launch a mobile missile with these types of ranges, it would be a significant military advance and a change in the North Korean calculus for the U.S., military officials say. In a conflict, mobile launchers can quickly shoot and move to a new position making it very difficult for satellites or spy planes to track them. It would also be a violation of U.N. resolutions banning North Korea from ballistic missile tests.
North Korea already has twice successfully launched a three-stage ballistic missile from a stationary launch pad, both times carrying a rudimentary satellite on the front end that was sent into orbit. Because it was a launch from a fixed site, satellites were able to watch for days as preparations were made.
The rocket launch was part of a series of provocative actions by North Korea, including a January 6 nuclear test that prompted international condemnation.
North Korea's verbal volleys
North Korea has a history of using creative language to express loathing for its enemies. Here are some of the regime's more colorful threats against the West.
March 2016: North Korea warned it would make a "preemptive and offensive nuclear strike" in response to
joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises. Pyongyang issued a long statement promising that "time will prove how the crime-woven history of the U.S. imperialists who have grown corpulent through aggression and war will come to an end and how the Park Geun Hye group's disgraceful remaining days will meet a miserable doom as it is keen on the confrontation with the fellow countrymen in the north."
March 2016: Following the imposition of strict U.N. sanctions, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the country's "nuclear warheads need to be ready for use at any time," the North Korean state news agency KCNA reported.
January 2016: North Korea claimed to have successfully tested a thermonuclear weapon, justifying its right to have an H-bomb on the grounds of "self defense."
September 2015: In a statement, North Korea said its nuclear arsenal was ready for use "at any time."
August 2015: As forces from the U.S. and South Korea took part in joint military drills. North Korea's state media referred to the exercises, which started on August 17, as "madcap" and issued a stern warning to America: "If the U.S. ignites a war in the end, far from drawing a lesson taught by its bitter defeat in the history, the DPRK will bring an irrevocable disaster and disgrace to it."
August 2015: On August 23, as North Korean negotiators were meeting with their South Korean counterparts over current tensions, a KCTV presenter appeared on air repeating North Korea's ambitions to "destroy the warmongering South Korean puppet military."
December 2014: The
FBI said it suspected North Korea was behind a hack of Sony Entertainment, which led executives to initially cancel the theatrical release of "The Interview." The film was a comedy about an American television personality who the CIA asks to assassinate North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
North Korea threatened "merciless" action against the U.S. if the film was released, accusing the U.S. of retaliating for the hack by shutting down North Korea's Internet access. North Korea's National Defense Commission
also called U.S. President Barack Obama "reckless" and a "monkey."
July 2014: North Korea threatens to hit the White House and Pentagon with nuclear weapons. American "imperialists threaten our sovereignty and survival," North Korean officials reportedly said after the country accused the U.S. of increasing hostilities on the border with South Korea. "Our troops will fire our nuclear-armed rockets at the White House and the Pentagon -- the sources of all evil," North Korean Gen. Hwang Pyong-So said,
according to The Telegraph.
March 2013: Angered by tougher U.N. sanctions and joint military exercises by the United States and South Korea, the
Supreme Command of North Korea's military vowed to put "on highest alert" the country's "rocket units" that are assigned to strike "U.S. imperialist aggressor troops in the U.S. mainland and on Hawaii and Guam and other operational zone in the Pacific." Whether Pyongyang has the will to back up such doomsday talk is a perplexing question,
but there is evidence that its know-how -- in terms of uranium enrichment, nuclear testing and missile technology -- is progressing.
February 2013: In a message to the United States and South Korea,
North Korea vowed "miserable destruction" if "your side ignites a war of aggression by staging reckless joint military exercises."
June 2012: Once again, North Korea
vowed to be "merciless" in its promised attack on the United States, this time threatening a "sacred war" as it aimed artillery at South Korean media groups. North Korea
was mad that South Korean journalists had criticized Pyongyang children's festivals meant to foster allegiance to the Kim family.
April 2012: North Korea's state-run news agency
reported that "the moment of explosion is approaching fast" and promised "merciless" strikes against the United States. "The U.S. had better ponder over the prevailing grave situation," it said. Later that month, Pyongyang
launched a long-range rocket that broke apart and fell into the sea. The launch came during preparations for a grand party that celebrated the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea.
November 2011: North Korea's
military threatened to turn the capital of South Korea into a "sea of fire," according to South Korea's Yonhap News Agency.
2009: After the U.S. pledge to give nuclear defense to South Korea,
Pyongyang threatened a "fire shower of nuclear retaliation."
2002: U.S. President George W. Bush includes North Korea in an "axis of evil" with Iran and Iraq, which North Korea brushes off as a "little short of a declaration of war." North Korea reportedly
threatened to "wipe out the aggressors." That year, North Korea also threatened to
kick out international inspectors who were in the country to monitor its compliance with global nuclear nonproliferation agreements.
Now the question for both stationary and mobile missiles is whether North Korea has miniaturized a nuclear warhead and mastered the technology of a re-entry vehicle that would give it the full capability to launch a nuclear attack.
As CNN reported in March, some U.S. intelligence analysts now believe that North Korea "probably" possesses a miniaturized nuclear warhead, several U.S. officials told CNN.
The assessment has yet to become a formal consensus view of the U.S. government. But it reveals just how far along many in the U.S. believe the reclusive country has come to gaining a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile that could potentially strike the U.S.
As North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's public rhetoric has escalated in recent weeks, concern has grown inside intelligence circles that he has made progress on several fronts.
"He is determined to prove his doubters wrong," one U.S. official told CNN, even as uncertainty remains about how much progress he has actually made in his quest for nuclear missiles.
Recent photos showing Kim standing next to what the North Koreans claim is a miniaturized nuclear device are still being scrutinized by U.S. analysts for any indication of progress, officials said, declining to provide additional specifics.
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U.S. officials who endorse the notion that Kim probably has a nuclear warhead still note that they don't know if the device would actually work. The North Koreans believe it would.
U.S. commanders have said they assume for war planning purposes that North Korea has a functional warhead but have stopped short of outright declaring it exists.
"It's the prudent decision on my part to assume that he has the capability to miniaturize a nuclear weapon and put it on an ICBM," Adm. William Gortney, head of U.S. Northern Command, recently told Congress.
But the Pentagon has taken pains to downplay the possibility. Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook acknowledged that "the commanders who are responsible for these activities" are "doing the prudent, appropriate, proper" thing by assuming the North Koreans possess this capability.