Milwaukee(CNN) Two candidates vying to take down their parties' front-runners could get big boosts if they win Tuesday in Wisconsin.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is leading Donald Trump in the Badger State's polls. And a Bernie Sanders win would mark his sixth victory over Hillary Clinton in the last seven states to vote.
It's the last big test until April 19, and each candidate has a lot to win — or lose.
Here are five things to watch Tuesday:
All eyes on Trump
Trump is coming off the worst week of his 2016 race. His campaign manager was charged with battery. He stepped into two controversies over abortion in three days, both forcing him to issue rare reversals. And he lost state-level fights over delegates to Cruz in North Dakota, Tennessee and Colorado.
Wisconsin is the first electoral test of whether he's paying a price.
Trump's campaign says it's expecting a close race in Wisconsin. It's "a toss-up," senior adviser Barry Bennett told CNN.
But the polls show Cruz with a 10-point lead in Wisconsin -- and if that margin grows Tuesday, it'd be a sign that the controversies swirling around Trump's campaign are taking their toll.
Still, Trump was inflating expectations Monday in La Crosse.
"I really believe tomorrow were going to have a very, very big victory. Very very big," he said. "You know, I've been up here a lot. And I love it, and the people I love."
Donald Trump's rise
President-elect Donald Trump has been in the spotlight for years. From developing real estate and producing and starring in TV shows, he became a celebrity long before winning the White House.
Trump at age 4. He was born in 1946 to Fred and Mary Trump in New York City. His father was a real estate developer.
Trump, left, in a family photo. He was the second-youngest of five children.
Trump, center, stands at attention during his senior year at the New York Military Academy in 1964.
Trump, center, wears a baseball uniform at the New York Military Academy in 1964. After he graduated from the boarding school, he went to college. He started at Fordham University before transferring and later graduating from the Wharton School, the University of Pennsylvania's business school.
Trump stands with Alfred Eisenpreis, New York's economic development administrator, in 1976 while they look at a sketch of a new 1,400-room renovation project of the Commodore Hotel. After graduating college in 1968, Trump worked with his father on developments in Queens and Brooklyn before purchasing or building multiple properties in New York and Atlantic City, New Jersey. Those properties included Trump Tower in New York and Trump Plaza and multiple casinos in Atlantic City.
Trump attends an event to mark the start of construction of the New York Convention Center in 1979.
Trump wears a hard hat at the Trump Tower construction site in New York in 1980.
Trump was married to Ivana Zelnicek Trump from 1977 to 1990, when they divorced. They had three children together: Donald Jr., Ivanka and Eric.
The Trump family, circa 1986.
Trump uses his personal helicopter to get around New York in 1987.
Trump stands in the atrium of the Trump Tower.
Trump attends the opening of his new Atlantic City casino, the Taj Mahal, in 1989.
Trump signs his second book, "Trump: Surviving at the Top," in 1990. Trump
has published at least 16 other books, including "The Art of the Deal" and "The America We Deserve."
Trump and singer Michael Jackson pose for a photo before traveling to visit Ryan White, a young child with AIDS, in 1990.
Trump dips his second wife, Marla Maples, after the couple married in a private ceremony in New York in December 1993. The couple divorced in 1999 and had one daughter together, Tiffany.
Trump putts a golf ball in his New York office in 1998.
An advertisement for the television show "The Apprentice" hangs at Trump Tower in 2004. The show launched in January of that year. In January 2008, the show returned as "Celebrity Apprentice."
A 12-inch talking Trump doll is on display at a toy store in New York in September 2004.
Trump attends a news conference in 2005 that announced the establishment of Trump University. From 2005 until it closed in 2010, Trump University had about 10,000 people sign up for a program that promised success in real estate.
Three separate lawsuits -- two class-action suits filed in California and one filed by New York's attorney general -- argued that the program was mired in fraud and deception. Trump's camp rejected the suits' claims as "baseless." And Trump has charged that the New York case against him is politically motivated.
Trump attends the U.S. Open tennis tournament with his third wife, Melania Knauss-Trump, and their son, Barron, in 2006. Trump and Knauss married in 2005.
Trump wrestles with "Stone Cold" Steve Austin at WrestleMania in 2007. Trump has close ties with the WWE and its CEO, Vince McMahon.
For "The Apprentice," Trump was honored with a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in January 2007.
Trump appears on the set of "The Celebrity Apprentice" with two of his children -- Donald Jr. and Ivanka -- in 2009.
Trump poses with Miss Universe contestants in 2011. Trump had been executive producer of the Miss Universe, Miss USA and Miss Teen USA pageants since 1996.
In 2012, Trump announces his endorsement of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
Trump speaks in Sarasota, Florida, after accepting the Statesman of the Year Award at the Sarasota GOP dinner in August 2012. It was shortly before the Republican National Convention in nearby Tampa.
Trump appears on stage with singer Nick Jonas and television personality Giuliana Rancic during the 2013 Miss USA pageant.
Trump -- flanked by U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio, left, and Ted Cruz -- speaks during a CNN debate in Miami on March 10. Trump dominated the GOP primaries and emerged as the presumptive nominee in May.
The Trump family poses for a photo in New York in April.
Trump speaks during a campaign event in Evansville, Indiana, on April 28. After Trump won the Indiana primary, his last two competitors dropped out of the GOP race.
Trump delivers a speech at the Republican National Convention in July, accepting the party's nomination for President. "I have had a truly great life in business," he said. "But now, my sole and exclusive mission is to go to work for our country -- to go to work for you. It's time to deliver a victory for the American people."
Trump apologizes in a video, posted to his Twitter account in October, for vulgar and sexually aggressive remarks he made a decade ago regarding women. "I said it, I was wrong and I apologize,"
Trump said, referring to lewd comments he made during a previously unaired taping of "Access Hollywood." Multiple Republican leaders rescinded their endorsements of Trump after the footage was released.
Trump walks on stage with his family after he was declared the election winner on November 9. "Ours was not a campaign, but rather, an incredible and great movement," he told his supporters in New York.
Trump is joined by his family as he is sworn in as President on January 20.
If Cruz wins, it would make Trump's path to 1,237 delegates before the Republican National Convention precarious. In a tight three-way race, he has little room for error, even with east coast states Trump should win up next. It's made more complicated by Cruz's mastery of the intricate rules and details of the nominating process -- which has left Trump crying foul and threatening lawsuits in states like Louisiana, where Cruz netted 10 more delegates than Trump even though Trump won the state.
"His team doesn't understand how these processes work so any time they lose they scream, 'The election's been stolen from us,'" Cruz said Monday on WISN radio in Wisconsin. "It's just silliness."
A must-win for Cruz
A loss would dent Trump. But it would crush Cruz, who has retail politicked his way across the Badger State as if it were Iowa in recent weeks.
While Trump is trying to claim a national movement, Cruz is waging a state-by-state, delegate-by-delegate knife fight to keep Trump from clinching the GOP nomination.
He'll try to pick up 42 more in Wisconsin: 18 that go to the statewide winner, plus 24 more chosen three apiece by the state's eight congressional districts.
Moments from Ted Cruz's career
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican presidential candidate, speaks during a campaign rally at the Indiana State Fairgrounds on Monday, May 2.
Cruz holds up the hand of Carly Fiorina at a campaign rally in Indianapolis on Wednesday, April 27. Cruz named Fiorina, a former presidential candidate, as his running mate.
Cruz celebrates his Wisconsin primary win with his wife, Heidi, and Gov. Scott Walker in Milwaukee on Tuesday, April 5. Walker endorsed Cruz for the presidency.
With his wife by his side, Cruz tours the Dane Manufacturing facility before speaking to workers in Dane, Wisconsin, on Thursday, March 24.
Cruz speaks during the CNN Republican debate in Miami on Thursday, March 10.
Cruz and his wife wave to the crowd at Liberty University after he announced his presidential candidacy in Lynchburg, Virginia, on March 23, 2015.
Cruz speaks during the 2013 NRA Annual Meeting and Exhibits at the George R. Brown Convention Center on May 3, 2013, in Houston, Texas.
Cruz poses with his wife, Heidi, and his daughters Caroline and Catherine.
Cruz (left) fields questions from Bruce Rastetter at the Iowa Ag Summit on March 7, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa. The event allows the invited speakers, many of whom are potential 2016 Republican presidential hopefuls, to outline their views on agricultural issue.
Nobel Peace Laureate Elie Wiesel (left) listens as Cruz (right) speaks during a roundtable discussion on Capitol Hill March 2, 2015 in Washington, D.C. Wiesel, Cruz and Rabbi Scmuley Boteach (center) participated in a discussion entitled 'The Meaning of Never Again: Guarding Against a Nuclear Iran.'
Governor Greg Abbott (center) speaks alongside Cruz (left), Attorney General Ken Paxton (right) at a joint press conference February 18, 2015, in Austin, Texas.
Sen. Patrick Leahy (right) escorts Loretta Lynch back from a lunch break as Cruz (left) sits nearby during her confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee January 28, 2015, on Capitol Hill.
Cruz greets supporters at the South Carolina Tea Party Coalition convention on January 18, 2015, in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. A variety of conservative presidential hopefuls spoke at the gathering on the second day of a three-day event.
Cruz (left) and then-Texas Governor Rick Perry stand together during a press conference at the front gate of Fort Hood about Iraq war veteran, Ivan Lopez, who killed three and wounded 16 before taking his own life on April 4, 2014, in Fort Hood, Texas.
(Left to right) Sen. Lindsey Graham, Sen. John McCain and Cruz listen as President Barack Obama delivers the State of the Union address on January 28, 2014, in Washington, D.C.
Then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (second right), poses with Republican senators-elect Jeff Flake (left), Deb Fischer (second left), and Cruz (right) at the U.S. Capitol on November 13, 2012, in Washington, D.C.
Cruz speaks to reporters on September 25, 2013, after ending his talk-a-thon on the floor of the US Senate in Washington, D.C.
Cruz speaks as then-Rep. Michele Bachmann (left), Sen. Mike Lee (second right) and Sen. Rand Paul (right) listen during a news conference May 16, 2013, on Capitol Hill.
Cruz listens to testimony during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on April 22, 2013, in Washington, D.C.
Cruz holds a news conference to announce the plan to defund Obamacare on March 13, 2013.
Cruz speaks at the CPAC on March 6, 2014, in National Harbor, Maryland.
Then-Senate Republican Candidate and Texas Solicitor General Cruz speaks at the 'Patriots for Romney-Ryan Reception' on August 29, 2012, in Tampa, Florida.
Then-Senate Republican Candidate and Texas Solicitor General Cruz speaks during the Republican National Convention at the Tampa Bay Times Forum on August 28, 2012.
Then-Senate Republican Candidate and Texas Solicitor General Cruz speaks during the Republican National Convention in 2012.
Wisconsin is also a test of the strength of the anti-Trump movement that Cruz is trying to lead. And it willl gauge whether popular, high-level endorsements from the likes of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker or former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush help push Cruz over the top.
Part of Wisconsin's importance to Cruz is that the calendar soon shifts to shakier ground for him. He's favored in the winner-take-all South Dakota, Montana and Nebraska contests, but could lose big in the next contest on the calendar, New York on April 19, and then Maryland, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware the following week.
CNN delegate estimate
"Just a couple of weeks ago, all of the media commentators were saying Wisconsin was a state that I could not compete and do well," Cruz said Monday in Kenosha. "They were saying it was a state that was a natural state for Donald Trump. The state historically has been a purple or even a blue state at times. It's a state that is, that is very heavily based on manufacturing, that has a lot of union members and working class members. Supposedly, it was Donald Trump's sweet spot, and yet I think the people of Wisconsin, they're looking at the records of the candidates, and they realize that Donald screams and yells a lot, but he has no solutions."
Can Sanders claim momentum?
He was swept in the South, and bloodied in the Rust Belt. But when the race shifted West, Bernie Sanders won five out of six states, regaining his footing and bolstering his argument to take the race all the way through the last contests on June 7.
Opinion: Clinton is winning but Sanders is no loser
A win in Wisconsin would give him a significant boost just as the race heads to New York -- the state where he was born, and which Clinton represented in the Senate. It would also give him victories in six out of the seven states in the month leading up to it -- helping to fuel the passion and small-dollar donations driving his candidacy.
Win or lose, Sanders' path to the Democratic nomination is a tight one. The party awards its delegates on a proportional basis, so there are no must-win states where he can place big bets the way Republicans have. He'll have to win on the coasts -- and that includes New York and its surrounding territory.
Clinton, Sanders to meet for Brooklyn debate
At a rowdy Monday evening rally in Milwaukee, Sanders talked repeatedly about "momentum" -- touting poll results, his growth from 2015 and a string of recent victories.
"Tomorrow, if there is a good turnout here in Wisconsin, if there is a record-breaking turnout here in Wisconsin, we are going to win here as well," he said.
How problematic is a loss for Clinton?
Clinton's campaign has downplayed the Wisconsin primary for weeks, arguing that the state's results won't tip the delegate count significantly in either direction. The former secretary of state wasn't even in Wisconsin on Monday -- instead campaigning in New York, where she faces a closer-than-expected contest in two weeks.
In Wisconsin, Clinton says Sanders is a Democrat-come-lately
Obviously Clinton would be delighted with a win, but no matter what, she will leave Wisconsin with a clear delegate lead. But, like Michigan in early March, the state could also leave her with a tougher-than-expected primary on her hands and in a position to explain to backers why she can't put the self-described democratic socialist away.
For more than a month, Clinton has tried to shift her attention to Republicans and the general election. Yet much like Clinton against then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2008, Sanders' persistent presence won't allow it.
Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook is telling supporters not to worry.
Clinton casts Sanders as 'pie in the sky' in Wisconsin
In a memo posted on Medium Monday evening, Mook wrote: "Sanders has to win the four remaining delegate-rich primaries -- New York, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey -- with roughly 60% of the vote. To put that in perspective: Sanders has thus far won only two primaries with that margin: Vermont and New Hampshire."
He calls the campaign's delegate lead "nearly insurmountable."
Kasich vs. the two-man race narrative
Ohio Gov. John Kasich has still won only a single state -- his own.
And he's increasingly under pressure from both Trump and Cruz, who are angling behind the scenes for GOP convention rules that would keep him off the first ballot there, and publicly for him to depart the race.
"He ought to get the hell out, honestly," Trump said Monday in La Crosse. He compared Kasich to Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul -- "every single candidate that went out and worked hard, that frankly, in most cases, have done much better than Kasich."
Trump: Kasich shouldn't be allowed to run
Rubio, in fact, still has more delegates than Kasich.
"He's just a stubborn guy," Trump said of Kasich. "He's stubborn. He doesn't want to leave."
Wisconsin, just like Michigan and Illinois before it, is the sort of state where Kasich ought to have a strong showing. Public polls have showed him within striking distance of Trump for second place -- and finishing ahead of Trump would be a major boost.